Last week was fantastic for the market. Not only because all major broad market indices moved substantially higher, but the upside bias was firmly entrenched, and the market ignored or shook-off a bunch of headlines that at various points derailed it during 2020.

• Rising Covid-19 cases in Europe and more U.S. states
• The inability of Congress to approve more fiscal stimulus
• Multiple warnings from Wall Street firms of near-term dread

Message of Market

On Friday, Energy took it on the chin, which served as a reminder that just because a sector has underperformed, it’s not automatically an opportunity. Meanwhile, Technology came on strong, led by semiconductors, which could be on the cusp of industry consolidation. Even without a rash of takeovers, it looks like this will be a monster earnings season for chipmakers.

Consumer Discretionary names continue to ride the stealth rally in brick-and-mortar names.

S&P 500 Index	+0.88%
Communication Services XLC	+0.60%
Consumer Discretionary XLY	+1.04%
Consumer Staples XLP	+0.78%
Energy XLE		-1.60%
Financials XLF	+0.12%
Health Care XLV	+0.90%
Industrials XLI	+0.37%
Materials XLB	+0.77%
Real Estate XLRE		-0.27%
Technology XLK	+1.53%
Utilities XLU		-0.02%

Transportation Watch

Anyone familiar with the Dow Theory knows a big component revolves around the performance of transportation stocks. The theory goes back to a series of essays written over 100 years ago when the transportation of goods was a more precise proxy for the overall economy. But even in the digital age, it’s very important for transportation names to outperform, and they are beginning to sizzle.

These names are not the sexiest and periodically move like lumbering giants, which is how they were acting, especially the largest holding stock in the index, known as FedEx (FDX). But Fred Smith & Co. turned it around after a wakeup call from Amazon (AMZN). You must have exposure in your portfolio:

S&P Transportation Index (XTN)

FDX	FedEx Corp	2.91%
AAWW	Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Inc	2.88%
UPS	United Parcel Service Inc	2.83%
CHRW	CH Robinson Worldwide Inc	2.81%
EXPD	Expeditors International of Washington Inc	2.72%
UNP	Union Pacific Corp	2.71%
CSX	CSX Corp	2.69%
NSC	Norfolk Southern Corp	2.67%
R	Ryder System Inc	2.66%
MIC	Macquarie Infrastructure Corp	2.66%
KSU	Kansas City Southern	2.63%
XPO	XPO Logistics Inc	2.62%
DAL	Delta Air Lines Inc	2.59%
LUV	Southwest Airlines Co	2.59%
LSTR	Landstar System Inc	2.59%

Transportation Breakout

The S&P Transportation Index (XTN) is right at a major resistance point after a solid series of higher lows created a very impressive trading channel.  A breakout took the index to the top of the channel, which is right at another major hurdle.

Earnings Season

It’s all about banks, transports, and consumer staples, as earnings season moves into a higher gear:

Tuesday

• Banks: JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Citi (C)
• Transports: Delta Air Lines (DAL)
• Consumer Staples: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Wednesday

• Banks: Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), PNC Financial Services (PNC), and U.S. Bancorp (USB)
• Transports: United Airlines (UAL)

Thursday

• Banks: Morgan Stanley (MS)
• Consumer Staples: Kimberly-Clark (KMB)

Friday

• Banks: Bank of New York (BK), State Street (STT), and Ally Financial (ALLY)
• Transports: J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT), and Kansas City Southern (KSU)

High Expectations

One year ago, Wall Street saw the third-quarter 2020 (3Q20) earnings up 13.2% year-to-year. Since then, it’s been downhill except in the past few months. In July, the consensus was for a decline of 25%, and now it’s 21.4%. In the early going, the first 21 reports have seen a 90% beat on revenue and earnings.

There will also be a lot of questions about fourth-quarter financials with Congress dragging its feet on fiscal help and worries about new lockdowns and restrictions as more coronavirus cases rebound.

Hotline Model Portfolio Approach

On Friday, we added to Consumer Discretionary in the Hotline Model Portfolio. This morning, we closed a stock in Consumer Staples and added to Industrials.

Today’s Session

Equities have gained strength all morning long and it's not from positive headlines or scuttlebutt form Washington. D.C.  

Bias turned higher, and it is gaining momentum as we head into earnings season. 

There is also positive anticipation about the Apple (AAPL) phone launch and Amazon (AMZN) Prime, which is becoming an industry holiday, that coupled with Halloween, could spark big retail spending sooner and replace Black Friday in importance. 

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Love your program on Fox Business Liz Clark on 10/12/2020 10:08:41 AM

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