Morning Commentary
That is how you start a week! All major equity indices were higher, led by the NASDAQ Composite. The market breadth was okay, although the volume was light. Tech buyers had the biggest ax to grind, sending the up volume on the NASDAQ well above the down volume.
Market Breadth |
NYSE |
NASDAQ |
Advancers |
1,786 |
1,974 |
Decliners |
1,229 |
1,383 |
52-week winners |
110 |
82 |
52-week losers |
8 |
28 |
Up Volume |
1.82 billion |
2.51 billion |
Down Volume |
1.65 billion |
1.37 billion |
Utilities were down (not a big deal), but Financials were a major disappointment.
S&P 500 Index |
+0.74% |
|
Communication Services XLC |
+0.69% |
|
Consumer Discretionary XLY |
+0.62% |
|
Consumer Staples XLP |
+0.50% |
|
Energy XLE |
+0.11% |
|
Financials XLF |
-0.82% |
|
Health Care XLV |
+0.75% |
|
Industrials XLI |
+0.42% |
|
Materials XLB |
+1.45% |
|
Real Estate XLRE |
+1.18% |
|
Technology XLK |
+1.58% |
|
Utilities XLU |
-1.21% |
I have been waiting since June 8th for the S&P 500 to broaden out, and finally, there are 200 winners for 2020. This is the time to find names swinging from losses to gains on the year.
S&P 500 Winners:
S&P 500 Losers:
NASDAQ Winners:
NASDAQ Losers:
Commodities Rally
We know about precious metals, but several commodities have taken off like rockets. It will be interesting to see what the Federal Reserve thinks about this, as I am sure there will be questions about the spikes and impending inflation.
I do not know if we are at the point of an inflation scare, or any circumstances that would hamstring the Fed’s ability to be even more accommodative:
Lumber Stands Tall
Wood is universally beautiful to man. It is the most humanly intimate of all materials.
-Frank Lloyd Wright
The housing demand and other uses for wood in the age of COVID-19, coupled with supply constraints, have sent lumber soaring. In the past three months, lumber has significantly outperformed Gold and Silver:
The move is reflected in several stocks, including recent Home Depot (HD) results and pure lumber plays.
Lumber
Portfolio Approach
Yesterday, we added a position in Materials yesterday, and we took an 11.1% profit in a Consumer Discretionary name in the Model Portfolio. Our current cash position is 3 or 15%.
Today’s Session
We are going through the avalanche of earnings and crunching the numbers, but one theme stands out clearly.
Coronavirus Lifestyle Changes & Earnings
Sprucing up the crib
· Sherwin Williams (SHW)
Playing outdoors
· Polaris (PII)
Move to the suburbs
· DR Horton (DHI)
We expect these trends to continue.
Four Dow component’s Pfizer (PFE), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), 3 M (MMM) and McDonald’s (MCD) all reported this morning. All but PFE are a drag on the Dow.
Tweet |
7/15/2025 1:35 PM | Semis Rise & Banks Slide |
7/15/2025 10:13 AM | THE CURIOUS CASE |
7/14/2025 1:32 PM | Decisive Week |
7/14/2025 9:32 AM | GET READY! |
7/11/2025 1:45 PM | Facing Pressure |
7/11/2025 9:48 AM | CLEAR FOR TAKEOFF |
7/10/2025 1:53 PM | Small Caps Rally |
7/10/2025 9:56 AM | ENOUGH ZEN TO SHARE |
7/9/2025 1:32 PM | NVDA New Milestone |
7/9/2025 9:46 AM | PASSING THE BATON |
7/8/2025 1:33 PM | Seesaw Session |
7/8/2025 9:55 AM | MORE SUMMER BLAHS THAN FEAR OF MYANMAR'S TARIFF |
7/7/2025 1:27 PM | Trade Talks and Profit Taking |
7/7/2025 9:51 AM | LOVING MOOD |
7/3/2025 9:45 AM | NICE & STEADY AS SEMIS CONTINUE TO CHIP IN |
7/2/2025 1:44 PM | Materials' Strength Continues |
7/2/2025 9:38 AM | BARNBURNER |
7/1/2025 1:29 PM | Rotation |
7/1/2025 9:45 AM | FEAR OF MISSING OUT IS CREEPING IN |
6/30/2025 1:24 PM | Steady As She Goes |
6/30/2025 9:54 AM | SUMMER RALLY STARTS |
6/27/2025 1:35 PM | Reaching New Heights |
6/27/2025 9:39 AM | THERE'S MORE! |
6/26/2025 1:10 PM | S&P Approaches Record |
6/26/2025 9:51 AM | CHIPS MOMENTUM CONTINUES |
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