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Morning Commentary

Buying the Dip in the Age of Coronavirus  

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
6/29/2020 9:04 AM

One of the hallmarks of the buy on dips approach to investing that has been phenomenally successful over the past decade has been buying the big Friday dip.  According to Bespoke, over the last decade, buying the Friday dip has seen close to 78% rebounds on the following Monday and 88% bounce over the ensuing month.

And the gains have been significant.

Covod-19 Bounce in Perspective

The market is indicating higher this morning, although, the financial media is pounding the table hard to turn it lower. 

There are legitimate reasons to be worried about the increase on positive Covid-19 cases but there is also something to be said for the continued decline in deaths. 

Young adults are driving the increase in new cases, and while they are not impervious to the virus, their mortality rate is significantly better than older folks.  There will be an uptick in deaths, but I don’t think it will be anywhere near commensurate with uptick in cases – and that will become the story at some point.

Portfolio Approach

This morning we are adding a position to Technology and reducing Cash to 5%.



Why are you and Fox New and Fox Business accepting the reports of the number of new cases at face value and not investigating?
I received some disturbing information about how new COVID cases are being counted.  You have access to lots of reporters.  Maybe you can confirm or disprove this procedure.
Example of procedure for counting new cases:
One asymptomatic person decides to get tested and it's positive.  The contact tracers count everyone that person has been in contact with over the last 14 days.  All those people are counted as new cases, even if they are asymptomatic and have not received a positive test.  The only way for these "contact cases" not to be included is to have a negative test.  
They do not give a second test to the original asymptomatic person to confirm it was not a false positive.

If this is how they're counting, they are inflating cases, leading to slowing the reopening of the economy.  And, they are reducing the death rate percentage, making people think the virus is not that dangerous or has become weaker.
Is this true?  I hope your team will investigate.  I know the other news networks won't.
Enjoy your show!
KC Pope

KC Pope on 6/29/2020 10:28:14 AM
One of the best comparative charts I have seen. Thank you

Rich on 6/29/2020 1:21:54 PM
Thank you Rich.  CP

Charles Payne on 6/29/2020 1:31:03 PM
I'd like to see an estimate of the current, active cases rather than total confirmed cases. Many of the 250,000 confirmed cases have now recovered.

Neal Campbell on 6/29/2020 2:09:53 PM

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