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Afternoon Note

Texas Tea

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
5/7/2020 2:11 PM

The market took off at the start and has not looked back.  Investors are becoming more bullish on the economy, earnings and news of potential vaccines being available sooner than what has been forecasted. 

Oil is flowing again today and ol man Jed, is happy.  WTI is up 26% this week and trending toward its best week ever. Production cuts in the U.S. coupled with Saudi Arabia raising its selling price, as economies around the world reopen and demand picks up, has propelled the commodity.

Prices could be driven even higher as demand picks up before supply can go back online and producers balance economies restarting with companies that will swap business travel for video conferencing.  Goldman Sachs thinks demand could be reduced by 3 million barrels a day as a result.

Talking about travel, Booking.com (BKNG) and Trip Advisor (TRIP) will report earnings after the bell.  While we know it will be a terrible quarter, cash will be key along with any signs of a pickup in bookings worldwide. ASIA is already seeing hotel reservations rising.

Another retailer has succumbed to bankruptcy as privately held Neiman Marcus filed voluntary Chapter 11.  This is the second major retailer to file.  J Crew filed for protection on May 4.

All S&P 500 sectors are in the green, with Energy assuming its dominance.  Consumer Staples is the laggard. Breadth has been improving, advancers are leading decliners 4-1 on NYSE and 3-1 on the Nasdaq, and the VIX (a measure of volatility) is at its lowest level since March.  Nasdaq is crossing 9k again and is on track for its 4th consecutive up day.

S&P 500 Index



Communication Services (XLC)



Consumer Discretionary (XLY)



Consumer Staples (XLP)



Energy (XLE)



Financials (XLF)



Health Care (XLV)



Industrials (XLI)



Materials (XLB)



Real Estate (XLRE)



Technology (XLK)



Utilities (XLU)



Nonfarm business sector labor productivity declined 2.5% in the first quarter, but was better than the expectations for -6%, from the 4th quarter’s 1.2% increase. Unit labor costs rose 4.8% up from +2.9% in the prior quarter. While productivity was weak in the first quarter, as these reports are review mirror looking, the second will likely be even weaker.  

All eyes will be on the jobs report tomorrow, which is expected to be a huge number.  Hopefully, the trend will be reversing. 

I would expect consumer staples would be up since everyone's working at home. What do you think the main drivers are to keep them at the back of the pack?

Debby Deering on 5/7/2020 2:57:51 PM

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