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Morning Commentary

NOT TOO GIDDY: JUST ANOTHER GOOD DAY

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
1/10/2020 9:40 AM

It was another nice pop on Thursday into the close. Stocks that lose these days are taking extra punishment; hence the fact that the down volume was almost equal to the up volume on the New York Stock Exchange. However, the winner’s circle is building with close to 500 stocks, closing at new 52-week highs on the NYSE and the NASDAQ.

NYSE

Advancers: 1,613

Decliners: 1,336

New Highs: 234

New Lows: 13

Up Volume: 1.43 billion

Down Volume: 1.33 billion

NASDAQ

Advancers: 1,812

Decliners: 1,395

New Highs: 252

New Lows: 17

Up Volume: 1.29 billion

Down Volume: 808.9 million

By the way, there is growing noise about the market being too enthusiastic, and the moves being too powerful to last. Check out the chart from Bespoke Extracts (BSPK). The historical norms of an average up day are +0.73% (the average down day, -0.73%); the DJIA +0.74%, S&P +0.67, and the NASDAQ +0.81%. 

Average Daily Percent Move Of The Stock Market

Big Jobs Day

United States Non Farm Payrolls

December Jobs Report

Estimate

November

Total employment

160,000

266,000

Private sector

153,000

254,000

Unemployment rate

3.5%

3.5%

Hourly wage increase

+0.3%

+0.2%

I think we’ll see a number north of 200,000; more importantly, I expect non-supervisory wages to continue to power ahead of the overall wage gains. Secondly, I want to see strong labor force gains to keep pushing up the employment-to-population ratio – the all-time high is within sight.

FRED Graph

Portfolio Approach

We add to new position to Consumer Discretionary yesterday.  We are raising our weighting on Consumer Discretionary to a 4 weight and reducing Cash to 0.  To learn more about our Hotline service click here or email us at research@wstreet.com.

Today’s Session

The jobs report came in slightly less than expected at 145,000 against consensus of 160,000.   Overall, it’s a solid number; although, I was hoping for better numbers from goods producing jobs:

Hourly wages have an asterisk attached because of the timing of the survey and probably are higher than the numbers posted this morning.

There were great highlights including:

Real Unemployment Report

U-6 is the total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.

The U6 is at a record all-time low.


 

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