Afternoon Note
The broad market opened higher, but a wave of buying took the Dow to a 200-point decline. The bigger losses were in the NASDAQ, which has seen the best year. Profit-taking is normal, and the buy on dips crowd sprang into action quickly.
I’m not sure what happens the rest of the session. Obviously, a lot of folks are on vacation so light volume can skew the action even more than normal.
Energetic Energy Sector
For most of the session, the only sector in the green has been Energy. The sector is very compelling and has been edging higher with a series of higher highs and lows since hitting a double bottom back in August. The problem is long term, the sector has been a disaster peaking back in June 2014. Rallies have been short lived and pullbacks sharp and deadly. There could be some trades here, but we are not forcing the issue.
Still, recent action in the sector underscores the desire to find cheap stocks or stocks that haven’t rallied much. You know cheap doesn’t always mean beaten down, but many market participants only use share price to determine value.
A move through $65.0 would attract non-traditional buyers.
XLE

Fundamentals of Oil Patch
An early rally in XLE stalled when U.S. crude oil inventories began to build. So, it’s imperative for those numbers to come back down to the lows of 2019. Demand is the other part of the equation. There is a sense with the global economy probably improving next year, there will be demand.
| Tweet |
| 7/16/2026 1:25 PM | Looking Under The Hood |
| 7/16/2026 7:07 AM | MOMENTUM IN THE WRONG DIRECTION |
| 7/15/2026 1:25 PM | Hyperscalers Watch |
| 7/15/2026 9:36 AM | RATE HIKE FEARS FADE |
| 7/14/2026 12:48 PM | Inflation Cools While the Market Heats Up |
| 7/14/2026 9:41 AM | WAR, INFLATION, & RISING ANXIETY |
| 7/13/2026 1:26 PM | Weakness Pressures Stocks |
| 7/13/2026 9:35 AM | HERE COMES WARSH |
| 7/10/2026 1:20 PM | Slow Summer Day |
| 7/10/2026 9:37 AM | SOLID REBOUND… WELCOMING SK HYNIX |
| 7/9/2026 1:25 PM | Chipmakers Rally Lift The Market |
| 7/9/2026 9:49 AM | WHAT A RIDE (IT ISN’T OVER) |
| 7/8/2026 1:23 PM | Middle Eastern Tensions |
| 7/8/2026 9:40 AM | HIGH-FLYERS TRIP UP (OR IS IT DOWN?) |
| 7/7/2026 1:39 PM | Finding Support |
| 7/7/2026 9:35 AM | RETREATING FROM FEAR |
| 7/6/2026 1:37 PM | Technology Reboot |
| 7/6/2026 9:39 AM | STRONGER MARKET MASKED |
| 7/2/2026 1:26 PM | Investors Continue to Rotate |
| 7/2/2026 9:47 AM | MARKET GETTING A LITTLE CHOPPY |
| 7/1/2026 1:32 PM | Solid Footing |
| 7/1/2026 9:41 AM | WHAT A YEAR …AND IT’S ONLY HALFWAY OVER |
| 6/30/2026 1:30 PM | Broadening Move |
| 6/30/2026 9:23 AM | MORE TO SPACE THAN ELON |
| 6/29/2026 1:20 PM | Morning Recovery |
| More commentary archives | |
|
Home |
Products & Services |
Education |
In The Media |
Help |
About Us |
Disclaimer | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | All Rights Reserved.
|