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Morning Commentary

A SO-SO START TO EARNINGS SEASON

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
1/14/2026 9:38 AM

The market struggled across all sessions to gain any traction yesterday. By the same token, it showed resolve amid the chorus of folks complaining about ‘Federal Reserve Independence.’ Financials (XLF) pulled up the rear in reaction to JPMorgan's (JPM) results, although big insurers (Progressive Corp (PGR) and Allstate (ALL)) took it on the chin harder.

Seeking New Opportunities

Artificial Intelligence (AI) played a prominent role among advancers, with Intel (INTC) heating up again and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) jumping on a tier one stock upgrade. Folks in the know say don’t sleep on Arista Networks (ANET) (too high Beta for the hotline, but I like the stock a lot as well). Coinbase Global (COIN) comes with Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies.

There could be some consolidation at this point, as the rally pauses before the next leg higher.

Heat Map & Market Breadth

There were vast swaths of green on the stock market heat map, as defensive sectors joined cyclicals to a solid session.

Remember, many of these names are now AI plays.

S&P 500 Map

Market breadth for the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ is mostly even among movers and volume, but new highs continue to dwarf new lows.

Marcia, Marcia, Marcia! - Jan Brady

Being in the middle, it’s easy to get lost, whether it’s in families or the stock market. But the middle is looking much better these days. Mid-cap growth was the best factor yesterday, and the S&P 400 (MID) closed at a new high.

CPI & Myth of Strong Consumer

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in better than expected, but enough components were high enough to give monetary hawks talking points. The problem is that the bifurcated economy is skewing the actual circumstances of “the consumer.” Take airline fees at +5.2% - wowzah!

But Delta Air Lines (DAL) reported that its main cabin saw a significant sales decline, as premium products surged – does that make the consumer strong, or is inflation an urgent issue that should be cured by the Fed making life harder for middle- and lower-income Americans?

Today’s Session

Retail sales for November are out this morning, coming in better than expected, with big pops in sporting goods, building materials, and miscellaneous store retailers.

The street was looking for a +0.5% M/M headline and a +0.4% core, but some firms, like Bank of America, were looking for much lower outcomes.

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Producer Price Index

PPI came in hotter than expected. We haven’t gone through it with a fine-tooth comb yet.

The Volatility Index (VIX) is popping on anxiety of the tariff decision, which could hit the tape at any moment this morning.


 

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