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Afternoon Note

Message of the Market

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
8/14/2019 1:16 PM

Looking at each sector’s performance today, investors are seeing different themes.

Investors are rotating into Consumer Staples (stuff we need versus stuff we want) and Real Estate (great growth potential and great yields).

S&P 500 Index

 

-2.29%

Communication Services (XLC)

 

-2.97%

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

 

-2.57%

Consumer Staples (XLP)

 

-0.65%

Energy (XLE)

 

-3.33%

Financials (XLF)

 

-3.06%

Health Care (XLV)

 

-1.82%

Industrials (XLI)

 

-2.42%

Materials (XLB)

 

-2.11%

Real Estate (XLRE)

 

-0.62%

Technology (XLK)

 

-2.77%

Utilities (XLU)

+0.41%

 

Trading Range & Fed Reaction

Over the last two weeks, there have been prodigious broad market rebounds. I couldn’t get excited because none took out key resistance points that were established at the close on August 2, 2019.  Conversely, on the downside, key support points have been created, and must be tested, and they must hold to generate increased buying.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

S&P 500

NASDAQ Composite

25,440

2,881

7,702

Of course, as the market tumbles toward those levels, selling begets more selling, which makes them an even bigger challenge. 

At this point a large percentage of this action is a direct message to Jay Powell.  At the time he coined the phrase “mid-cycle adjustment,” I knew it was a mistake, and so did the market.  But the question and answer period made things even worse, as it hinted at personal animosity driving Fed decisions.

The flub was not unlike the October 3, 2018, comment about “long ways” to go with rate hikes to get to neutral.  At this point, the market will begin to demand Fed action before the scheduled FOMC gathering next week.

These emotional moves are going to give us amazing chances to make a lot of money, but it will require some ice water in the veins, and you get that by knowing history and current facts and fundamentals.

I will continue to share these with you, and at the same time try to understand the various short-term variables.

 


Comments
other than Utilities, Charles, as seniors, we are out until President Trump gets his deal with China...way too much volatility and emotion playing out with "experts"...

Don on 8/14/2019 1:26:07 PM
As Charles always said, “never panic”, “know who you are”, always have an open to buy, always!
Don’t be afraid to take a loss, the first loss is your best loss....in this case, have a positive attitude, have faith in Trump, America is in a GREAT POSITION🇺🇸💪💰
Louis Armstrong....”What a Wonderful World”
Better still...listen to Sinatra..Singing and talking about America, we always come back, this is our home, THANK GOD🇺🇸💪💰🥊👍🙏

Neil Feuer on 8/14/2019 1:43:35 PM
For the longer term I'm in bonds which are doing okay. I think a lot more down side is coming for the stock market.

Brian Bigelow on 8/14/2019 2:02:06 PM
Too many high level democrats in various official positions don't care about the common citizen and their financial well being. All they want is to bring down the US economy so that they have a chance to win the 2020 elections!!

William Brown on 8/14/2019 3:25:30 PM
I am tired of the market going up one day and plummeting the next based on pretty much the same data available only depicted by the media and traders as somehow different. The yoeld curve has been teetering on inversion for some time while companies are reporting good earning with most beating estimates, but yet one day it is negative rates in Europe followed by tariff reprieve (with still negative rates in Europe, the inversion with still good earnings and tariffs delayed, etc., etc. Somebody or a group if them are manipulating the market to their benefit and no one brings up this potential reason for th volatility? Why not? Who is part of it and driving it??? Let's keep talking about the ling term game of the tariffs and the USA as the economy that is still churning and the future demand for technology and memory that all talks about, but forgets short term. Is not a stock's value the Present Value of future returns or is in the pundits value for that trading day? I am disgusted!

Jerry de Cesare on 8/14/2019 4:02:35 PM
 

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