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Morning Commentary

Unloved and Loving It

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
7/16/2019 9:32 AM

The stealth rally continues, and it remains unloved, and I suspect those that are long this market are loving the fact this remarkable run is ignored and dismissed.   

The mavens that have missed the move continue to be wrong on everything from the Fed to the consumer.  But the stock market, not the mavens, continue to anticipate that a strong and determined consumer keeps the economy and stock market elevated.   

See the late move yesterday in Consumer Discretionary, as Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) shares reflect the fact there can be more than one winner in the Internet era of shopping.

Late Surge

4:00 PM

2:00 PM

S&P 500 Index

+0.02%

-0.13%

Communication Services (XLC)

+0.02%

-0.27%

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

+0.32%

-0.10%

Consumer Staples (XLP)

+0.23%

+0.13%

Energy (XLE)

-0.90%

-0.69%

Financials (XLF)

-0.57%

-0.58%

Health Care (XLV)

+0.22%

+0.26%

Industrials (XLI)

-0.41%

-0.45%

Materials (XLB)

+0.07%

-0.19%

Real Estate (XLRE)

+0.13%

+0.34%

Technology (XLK)

+0.33%

+0.10%

Utilities (XLU)

+0.40%

+0.13%

Retail Sales

Retail sales came in much better than expected, and the so-called control group is up enough to move 2Q 2019 GDP needle.

Interestingly, splurging reflects confidence in restaurant and bars versus eating at home, while the surge in Internet continues. But, the death spiral in department stores also continues, -1.1 month to month and -5.2% from a year ago.

Retail & Food Sales

June 2019

M/M

Y/Y

Headline

+0.4

+3.4

Ex-Vehicle

+0.4

+3.3

Ex-Gasoline

+0.7

+3.9

Ex- Vehicles & Gasoline

+0.7

+3.8

Vehicle

+0.7

+4.1

Furniture

+0.5

+0.8

Electronic

-0.3

-5.0

Building Materials

+0.5

-2.5

Food & Beverage

+0.5

+2.9

Health & Personal Care

+0.5

+5.5

Gas Station

-2.8

-1.7

Clothes

+0.5

-0.9

Sporting Goods

+0.0

-3.3

General Merchandise

+0.2

+2.5

Miscellaneous

+0.6

+3.2

Internet

+1.7

 

+13.4

Restaurants & Bars

+0.9

+4.0

Portfolio Approach

Communication Services

Consumer Discretionary

Consumer Staples

1

4

1

Energy

Financials

Healthcare

1

2

1

Industrial

Materials

Real Estate

2

3

1

Technology

Utilities

Cash

3

0

1

 

Today’s Session

Look at JB Hunt (JBHT) and remember the observation I shared yesterday.   Right now, this is the stock of the day.


Comments
I have watched you and your optimistic viewpoint and have agreed 100% with you. I cashed out one quarter of my stocks before the big crash and then bought back in on some of the top and expensive stocks at a much lower lower price. Everyone I know thought I was crazy. I am up this year alone 35%. Thanks for all your good ideas and knowledge. You and fox business news have totally helped me as well as just looking around and seeing the lack of employees available because everyone is working. By the way, been in and out of Roku and Nutanix in the last two years and have a tremendous amount of money. Thank you

sally baumann on 7/16/2019 10:39:36 AM
 

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