Combing through the June jobs report a few trends and major shifts stand out.  Much is being made of higher paying jobs slowing from a year ago but the composition of the employment picture saw higher paying jobs enjoy greater changes in hours worked and net changes in employed.

Higher Paying Jobs	Hourly Wage	Change Hours	Employed
Utilities	$37.08	+1.7	+1,400
Information	$33.48	+0.0	+2,000
Mining	$29.89	+0.3	-1,000
Construction	$28.46	+0.8	+21,000
Professional & Business	$27.59	+0.2	+51,000

 

Lower Paying Jobs	Hourly Wage	Change Hours	Employed
Leisure	$14.45	+0.4	+8,000
Retail	$16.59	-0.1	-5,800
Non-Durables	$20.52	+0.1	+5,000
Trade & Transportation	$20.66	+0.1	+23,900
Other	$21.16	+0.2	+10,000

The unemployment rate for those jobs and other important industries also improved greatly:

• Construction 4.0% from 4.7%
• Information 2.7% from 4.6%
• Self-employed 2.3% from 3.0%
• Agriculture 5.9% from 7.2%

Red Flags?

It’s become political fodder that the notion of a large swath of Americans need to work two-jobs to make ends meet.  The number has increased but as a percentage of the population it’s far from an epidemic.  Moreover, in a world where progressive thought suggest work-life balance that would mean more part time work or taking on multiple jobs where the worker decides when to work.  Still, more women working multiple jobs for any reason will resonate with some voters.

I’m not sure about the impact of ride-sharing companies but it’s obviously weighing on this dynamic. 

Multiple Job Holders Spike	June 2019	June 2018
Primary full-time /secondary part-time	4,340	4,136
Both part-time	2,052	1,872
Both full-time	360	330
Both vary	1,186	1,032
Total	7,987	7,457
Men	3,893	3,631
Women	4,094	3,826
Percentage total men	4.6%	4.4%
Percentage total women	5.6%	5.2%

 

The U6 or “real” unemployment rate edged up to 7.2 from 7.1%

As for how the Federal Reserve sees the jobs report while it was strong it wasn’t so strong in my opinion to alter the Fed’s well-telegraphed rate cut this month.

It was a strong rebound but for the first half of this year’s monthly job gains have averaged 172,000 versus 223,000 last year.

Portfolio Approach

We don’t have much cash, so we are reexamining positions as we consider raising cash to fund new ideas.

Communication Services	Consumer Discretionary	Consumer Staples
1	4	1
Energy	Financials	Healthcare
1	2	1
Industrial	Materials	Real Estate
2	3	1
Technology	Utilities	Cash
2	0	2

Today’s Session

The market is looking to open lower and while headlines point to worry over the Fed not cutting rates I’m not so sure it’s not just a case of a few more sellers than buyers. 

A downgrade on Apple to “sell” will hurt the NASDAQ and several other indices although key chip stocks are pointing to higher starts to the session.

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