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Morning Commentary

Job Report Strong but Fed Probably Cuts

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
7/8/2019 9:24 AM

Combing through the June jobs report a few trends and major shifts stand out.  Much is being made of higher paying jobs slowing from a year ago but the composition of the employment picture saw higher paying jobs enjoy greater changes in hours worked and net changes in employed.

Higher Paying Jobs

Hourly Wage

Change Hours

Employed

Utilities

$37.08

+1.7

+1,400

Information

$33.48

+0.0

+2,000

Mining

$29.89

+0.3

-1,000

Construction

$28.46

+0.8

+21,000

Professional & Business

$27.59

+0.2

+51,000

 

Lower Paying Jobs

Hourly Wage

Change Hours

Employed

Leisure

$14.45

+0.4

+8,000

Retail

$16.59

-0.1

-5,800

Non-Durables

$20.52

+0.1

+5,000

Trade & Transportation

$20.66

+0.1

+23,900

Other

$21.16

+0.2

+10,000

The unemployment rate for those jobs and other important industries also improved greatly:

Red Flags?

It’s become political fodder that the notion of a large swath of Americans need to work two-jobs to make ends meet.  The number has increased but as a percentage of the population it’s far from an epidemic.  Moreover, in a world where progressive thought suggest work-life balance that would mean more part time work or taking on multiple jobs where the worker decides when to work.  Still, more women working multiple jobs for any reason will resonate with some voters.

I’m not sure about the impact of ride-sharing companies but it’s obviously weighing on this dynamic. 

Multiple Job Holders Spike

June 2019

June 2018

Primary full-time /secondary part-time

4,340

4,136

Both part-time

2,052

1,872

Both full-time

360

330

Both vary

1,186

1,032

Total

7,987

7,457

Men

3,893

3,631

Women

4,094

3,826

Percentage total men

4.6%

4.4%

Percentage total women

5.6%

5.2%

 

The U6 or “real” unemployment rate edged up to 7.2 from 7.1%

As for how the Federal Reserve sees the jobs report while it was strong it wasn’t so strong in my opinion to alter the Fed’s well-telegraphed rate cut this month.

It was a strong rebound but for the first half of this year’s monthly job gains have averaged 172,000 versus 223,000 last year.

Portfolio Approach

We don’t have much cash, so we are reexamining positions as we consider raising cash to fund new ideas.

Communication Services

Consumer Discretionary

Consumer Staples

1

4

1

Energy

Financials

Healthcare

1

2

1

Industrial

Materials

Real Estate

2

3

1

Technology

Utilities

Cash

2

0

2

 

Today’s Session

The market is looking to open lower and while headlines point to worry over the Fed not cutting rates I’m not so sure it’s not just a case of a few more sellers than buyers. 

A downgrade on Apple to “sell” will hurt the NASDAQ and several other indices although key chip stocks are pointing to higher starts to the session.


 

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