Afternoon Note
The market is largely marking time ahead of a big weekend meeting between President Trump and President Xi approach. News that China is making demands about removing tariffs and the inclusion of Huawei is a good sign that serious negotiations are going to take place rather than talk of saving face. I think “demands” from China is good news – a necessary part of negotiations.
Leaks and speculation will dominate news today and tomorrow putting the Fed on the backburner. The Fed must still pay close attention to economic developments beyond current or potential further tariff issues.
This morning, economic data was mixed.
Home Sales
Pending home sales (contracts signed) improved 1.1 over April, coming in better than consensus of +0.6%, but it was the seventeenth straight month of year over year declines.
Pending Home Sales Regional Trends |
PHSI |
M/M |
Y/Y |
Northeast |
92.0 |
+3.5% |
-0.5% |
Midwest |
100.3 |
+3.6% |
-1.2% |
South |
124.1 |
+0.1% |
+0.7% |
West |
91.8 |
=1.8% |
-3.1% |
PHSI (year to year)
Employment
Initial jobless claims edged higher to 227,000 against consensus of 220,000.
Overall, the market is cautiously optimistic.
Advancers outpacing decliners
• 2 to one on NYSE
• 3 to one on NASDAQ
Ten of 11 sectors are higher and only 1/3 of the DJIA components are lower. There’s still caution in the air (hence, bigger moves in Real Estate and Healthcare) and Financials are now value stocks.
S&P 500 Index |
+0.28% |
|
Communication Services (XLC) |
+0.35% |
|
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) |
+0.36% |
|
Consumer Staples (XLP) |
+0.05% |
|
Energy (XLE) |
-0.36% |
|
Financials (XLF) |
+0.85% |
|
Health Care (XLV) |
+0.59% |
|
Industrials (XLI) |
+0.01% |
|
Materials (XLB) |
+0.35% |
|
Real Estate (XLRE) |
+0.95% |
|
Technology (XLK) |
+0.10% |
|
Utilities (XLU) |
+0.13% |
Tweet |
7/2/2025 1:44 PM | Materials' Strength Continues |
7/2/2025 9:38 AM | BARNBURNER |
7/1/2025 1:29 PM | Rotation |
7/1/2025 9:45 AM | FEAR OF MISSING OUT IS CREEPING IN |
6/30/2025 1:24 PM | Steady As She Goes |
6/30/2025 9:54 AM | SUMMER RALLY STARTS |
6/27/2025 1:35 PM | Reaching New Heights |
6/27/2025 9:39 AM | THERE'S MORE! |
6/26/2025 1:10 PM | S&P Approaches Record |
6/26/2025 9:51 AM | CHIPS MOMENTUM CONTINUES |
6/25/2025 1:42 PM | Tech Stocks Power Nasdaq 100 |
6/25/2025 9:47 AM | CLIMBING MOUNTAINS OF WORRY |
6/24/2025 1:47 PM | Peace Rally |
6/24/2025 9:48 AM | PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH: THE MARKET LOVES IT |
6/23/2025 1:47 PM | Getting Some Resolve |
6/23/2025 9:51 AM | BRACING |
6/20/2025 1:29 PM | Second Triple Witching |
6/20/2025 9:38 AM | POWELL BLEW IT |
6/18/2025 12:41 PM | FED Day |
6/18/2025 9:45 AM | ROOM WITH A VIEW |
6/17/2025 1:26 PM | Tension Continues |
6/17/2025 9:50 AM | THE BIG TECH TEN & CO |
6/16/2025 1:34 PM | Fears Subside |
6/16/2025 9:44 AM | DRUMBEATS OF PEACE |
6/13/2025 1:30 PM | Showing Resilience |
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