Morning Commentary
Even though the Dow Jones Industrial Average couldn’t hold onto a 414-point rally on Friday, closing up 250 points was more impressive in many ways.
A part of the reason the session was impressive was the would-be savior of the market, JPMorgan Chase (JPM). The company posted earnings, and after initially moving higher, the stock was the worst performer in the Dow. Also, the big banks were supposed to lift the market higher. Instead, after an early bounce, their gains faded, and so did the gains in the broader market.
Investors ignored the failure of the rally, but unlike every other session last week, they didn’t panic. On the contrary, it turns out the real buy signal wasn’t opening higher, but the dip into negative territory was what buyers had to see.
More succinctly, the ability to freefall 400 Dow points and not trigger a domino panic was big.
The moral of the story is, for now, sellers might be tapped out as panic selling dried up, and panic buying rallied the market into the close. The focus is on stocks that have made investors a lot of money in a short period of time.
Technology
Consumer Services
Consumer Discretionary
S&P 500 Index |
+1.42% |
Communication Services (XLC) |
+2.23% |
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) |
+1.85% |
Consumer Staples (XLP) |
+0.56% |
Energy (XLE) |
+0.27% |
Financials (XLF) |
+0.11% |
Health Care (XLV) |
+1.54% |
Industrials (XLI) |
+0.67% |
Materials (XLB) |
+0.28% |
Real Estate (XLRE) |
-0.06% |
Technology (XLK) |
+3.21% |
Utilities (XLU) |
-0.11% |
Sadly, there wasn’t much more bottom-fishing or value-buying. Market breadth was better measuring advancers and the up volume, but that one key milestone metric is still worrisome.
Investors returned to names that led on the way up, although Facebook (FB) was very unimpressive.
Today’s Session
Geopolitical Influences
Earnings Front
This week, it’s all about earnings with 54 S&P 500 components set to release their Financials:
Conversely, the stakes are higher and so is anxiety.
NASDAQ
This is a very critical week for the market.
Bank of America posted solid earnings this morning, but the initial reaction has been mooted. That said, equity futures have overcome huge overnight losses in preopening trading.
While conventional wisdom was correct that money flowed into bonds last week, it wasn’t at the expense of equities. Instead, corporate bonds took a shellacking. There were net inflows into the S&P 500 and Dow Jones ETFs, but the Russell 2000 saw significant outflows.
ETF Fund Flows |
Contribution |
AUM change |
SPY |
$5.6B |
+2.8% |
VOD |
$1.2B |
+1.2% |
DIA |
$684M |
+3.1% |
TLT |
$587M |
+7.5% |
EWJ |
$567M |
+3.4% |
ETF Fund Flows |
Redemptions |
AUM change |
HYG |
$2.8B |
-17.4% |
RUT |
$1.2B |
-13.5% |
AGG |
$2.2B |
-4.0% |
JNK |
$1.3B |
-14.3% |
LQD |
$1.2B |
-3.7% |
Retail sales out this morning missed on headlines, but there are intriguing internal trends, including the so-called control group, which augurs for strong 3Q18 GDP number.
There will be more details on the afternoon note along with Empire State Manufacturing report, which came in better than expected.
Comments |
Charles, please could you answer a question? Is Sears is going bankrupt what happens to debt cards, Sears credit card, or even DISCOVER? We know their are banking underwriting partners but will all debt expenditure be due immediately, or interest rates triple?. Anything that you can please post would be helpful, to all the dirty fingernail worker's give you appreciation for TRUTH & FACTS, knowledge. Thank you Charles PAYNE & FBN J on 10/15/2018 6:03:20 PM |
Excellent analysis. Good job. Thanks for the info. Lew Holt on 10/15/2018 7:35:12 PM |
Tweet |
4/24/2024 1:30 PM | Earnings Flood In |
4/24/2024 9:26 AM | BUYING THE DIP |
4/23/2024 1:25 PM | Bloom Off Rose |
4/23/2024 9:32 AM | WHAT HAPPENED TO THE BRAVADO? |
4/22/2024 1:22 PM | Pins and Needles |
4/22/2024 9:30 AM | LIVE BY THE SWORD … |
4/19/2024 1:20 PM | Fair Chunk of Rotation |
4/19/2024 9:35 AM | DON’T OVERREACT |
4/18/2024 1:37 PM | Didn’t Break Down |
4/18/2024 9:40 AM | MARKET OFF SCRIPT |
4/17/2024 1:59 PM | Facing Pressure |
4/17/2024 9:37 AM | POWELL STILL WANTS TO HELP |
4/16/2024 1:35 PM | Muted |
4/16/2024 9:42 AM | FEAR ARRIVES |
4/15/2024 1:17 PM | Making a Statement |
4/15/2024 9:45 AM | Equal Opportunity Drubbing |
4/12/2024 1:37 PM | Pressure Overall |
4/12/2024 9:42 AM | WHO YA GONNA CALL? |
4/11/2024 1:38 PM | No Urgency |
4/11/2024 9:27 AM | Tough Sledding |
4/10/2024 1:22 PM | Hang In There |
4/10/2024 9:51 AM | HERE COMES THE LATEST RATIONALE FOR PERSISTENT INFLATION |
4/9/2024 1:56 PM | Fighting the Trend |
4/9/2024 9:46 AM | NEXT TIME, MAKE IT A HOLIDAY |
4/8/2024 9:45 PM | Cautious Feel |
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