There was lots of economic data out this morning with great news offsetting disappointment on housing starts.

The one report that speaks the most about how politics and policies impact the optimism of the public is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report.  The Index rose to a 14 year high of 102 in March from 99.7 in February, as folks are thrilled with current conditions.

Major milestones include:

• 59% say they’ve seen “financial progress” that’s the highest level in history of the report (1946)
• “Income gains” at highest level in fifty-years

Interestingly, the report shows a major bifurcation in optimism as those households with incomes in the bottom third reported a 15.7 percentage point increase in optimism versus those in the top third that saw a 7.3 percentage point decline.

No doubt this reflects real changes in the fortunes of Main Street and anxiety among elites that President Trump might upset the status quo too much with things like tariffs.  This is also why the expectations component edged slight lower to 88.6 from 90.0.

Jobs Openings Record

One reason Main Street sentiment is soaring is jobs.  The JOLTs report showed a remarkable 645,000 monthly increase in job openings in January to an all-time record 6.3 million.  Construction job openings popped to 250,000 +68% and Manufacturing climbed to 427,000 +14%.

Housing starts, and permits were weaker than expected.

• Starts were at an annual rate of 1.236 million units, seasonally adjusted, in February versus an upwardly revised 1.329 million units in January, which was the highest since October 2016.
• Permits were 1.298 million versus a downwardly revised 1.377 million in January.

The good news is there was an increase in single-family starts and in the number of units under construction.

The market is higher, but as long as the Dow trades between 25,710 and 23,860, the day to day bounces will ignore the real news.  You shouldn’t, as clear winners continue to emerge for the next leg higher.