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Morning Commentary

New Hurdle, New Anxiety

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
3/17/2017 9:52 AM
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A day after the best session in a couple of weeks, the Dow Jones industrial Average and S& P 500 finished the session lower.  The NADSAQ continues to ride the wave of hot tech stocks to finish higher.  After the close Adobe (ADBE) posted financial results that beat on revenue, beat on earnings by $0.07 and saw management hike guidance.

What makes today’s session a little uneasy, which appeared to be a strong start, fizzled quickly meanwhile gold surged. 

Part of the problem may be technical, the Dow closed within two points of 21,000 before the air came out of the balloon.  You also have to wonder if all the question marks coming from Washington DC, might also be weighing on investors. 

Beyond the rubbernecking, there are more worries about the timetable for tax cuts. 


Watch the Data

Its fine for stocks to stall, but investors should keep one eye on economic data that continues to impress.  The government announced 5.6 million jobs openings in January, and 32 million people said to their bosses they were taking the job and - a serious sign of confidence.

United States Job Openings

There was also a very strong report on housing starts, especially for single family home.  I’m working on a special report that explains why a move to traditional American values, including home ownership and family formation, is the ultimate economic stimulus.

Today’s Session

The market opened slightly higher but without conviction.  By the same token there isn’t a lot of fear, but that’s the market on Main Street. Optimism continues to blossom, as reflected in the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort report out yesterday, which climbed better than expected to 51.0, the highest level in more than a decade.

Six out of the last seven weeks, the index has been on fire since the inauguration.  

Interestingly, optimism for those that are politically independent, is now at a 15- year high point.

There is a fresh political confidence report at 10:00 am, while I don’t think it will move the market, it could be a harbinger of action that could move the economy and would move the market down. 

Consider all these news, as seeds that will sprout over the next three months and longer. 

A shift to family formation, housing starts and a societal shift away from secular underpinnings may indeed revive traditional american values. And be stimulative! If gov't gets out of the way and lets innovation in the tech sector and healthcare (bio pharma, et al) the USA could very well be on the cusp of another economic renaissance. We'll let govt play a role in infrastructure as long as it is privately managed

Garro on 3/17/2017 10:27:30 AM
It is fair to understand that the new economic “A la Trump” is a 180 degree from the static financial economy of Obama. Borrowing is going to be in style again and with it interest rates will climb and inflation will show it face.
For many years a 7% inflation was seen as supporting the population growth. Charles! True or false?

Philippe on 3/17/2017 5:45:21 PM

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