It's been a tough session as questions mount for the AI trade and anxiety builds ahead of the FOMC decision. I remain in the camp that the AI trade is not over, but I have been at this a long time, and fear begets fear, coupled with ignorance and deliberately poor reporting; the pressure is on holders.  Would-be buyers understand there is less urgency and they could get a better price tomorrow.

We are chomping at the bit to buy and add to positions but not trying to guess the bottom.

At 2:00 PM EST, we will learn of the FOMC's decision on rates.  Right now, the CME FedWatch puts the chance of a rate hike at 36%.

History shows there have been zero rate hikes when the odds are less than 40%.

But there is something about the Warsh factor that has folks thinking we could see something completely out of the norm today – hence the record amount of contracts on today’s decision.

It's already set up to be the biggest surprise since December 1997 (see green arrow) if the Fed holds.

It would be the biggest surprise on record if they hiked (see red arrow).

I think Warsh fought hard for a “no hike” decision.

Buckle up, boys and girls…