It’s another negative session as oil prices and Treasury yields are adding pressure across rate-sensitive areas of the market. Meta Platforms (META) and semiconductors provide some pockets of support but weak breadth and weakness in smaller-cap stocks signal limited buying interest across the market.

The Technology sector (XLK) is holding up considerably better than the broad market with several semiconductor names ranking among S&P’s best performers. Weakness comes from Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY).

Looking for More

The Treasury tripled its next long-term debt buyback to $6 billion, as Treasury Secretary Bessent seeks to contain rising borrowing costs. The buybacks, Bessent said, are aimed at improving market liquidity and limiting disruptive yield moves.

The markets were expecting more with the 10-year yield (TNX) pushing to its highest level since 2023.

Make it or Break it

This Friday’s CPI is a make or break, in the short term, for the market. As of today, Fed Fund Futures are at a 64% chance of a rate increase.

Analysts’ estimates for this Friday’s CPI point to core inflation increasing month-over-month while year-over-year is expected to cool down. However, headline CPI is expected to accelerate driven by higher energy prices.

AI Developments

In a note released this week, OpenAI marks a critical inflection point as AI models now are accelerating their own development. This is bringing a heavy reliance on coding agents and fundamentally changing R&D economics. 

Mathematicians at OpenAI announced that a group of 10k autonomous AI agents under their direction proved that the Navier-Stokes equations can “blow up,” thus solving one of the six remaining Millennium Prize Problems. For around 90 years, nobody could prove if these equations always keep making mathematical sense, or if they eventually could fail. OpenAI revealed they can fail.

But this massive result came with controversies.

Another controversy comes from Anthropic. A researcher at the firm resigned publicly yesterday over concerns the company was “gambling with our lives” and racing to build systems that could get out of control and destroy humanity.

Meta Platforms (META) launched Muse, your own personal AI companion. Muse hit the App Store top 5 in under 24 hours, giving Meta signs its consumer AI push is landing.

Apple (AAPL) Annual Product Launch

The company’s annual product launch is starting today, the first one for new CEO John Ternus. The CEO is expected to oversee the launch of Apple’s first foldable iPhone, as well as upgrades to its iPhone 18 Pro and Apple Watch lineup.

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