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Afternoon Note

Looking Under The Hood

By John Jean, Research Analyst
7/16/2026 1:25 PM

Major indices are reversing off session highs and mostly in the red this afternoon.

Weaknesses are mostly focused on semiconductors and hardware names in Technology (XLK) as well as some red in the Industrials (XLI) space. These moves come after adverse reactions to Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and GE Aerospace (GE) respectively.

However, zooming out of those pockets of red, market breadth is more positive than the headline move may suggest. The NYSE has more advancers than decliners, while the more tech heavy Nasdaq is underwater. Although both are seeing new highs outpace new lows.

The strength is mostly centered in the more defensive sectors of Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV), and Real Estate (XLRE). Notably, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is giving a boost to the Health Care space following a favorable reaction to earnings, while Prologis (PLD) is also seeing a positive earnings reaction and giving a boost to the Real Estate sector.

Despite continued skirmishes in the Middle East, oil has notably not moved much in the past few days and is currently holding below $80.

Meanwhile, the Ten-Year Treasury Yield (TNX) is up 2.8 basis points and continuing to hold above the 4.5% level.

Nvidia (NVDA) made a notable robotics announcement, introducing the new Jetson T3000 Thor robotics computer, which is roughly half the size of the T5000 module and uses about half the power while delivering similar AI inference performance. 

Another notable story from Nvidia is that it is partnering with Japan's Noetra to build a Vera Rubin AI factory with 13,750 Vera CPUs and 27,500 Rubin GPUs delivering 140 megawatts of data center capacity, part of Japan's newly launched national AI infrastructure and the computing foundation for the FRONTia Project. 

Economic Data

The New York Fed Services Index shot up 19 points to 8.7 in July, with business activity expanding for the first time in almost 2 years.

One notable point under the surface is that both current and expected prices paid and received showed a notable dip from June as inflation expectations cool.

The NAHB Housing Market Index edged down 2 points in July to 34, missing the forecast of 35. Current conditions fell 1 point to 37, while expectations over the next 6 months also fell 2 points to 43. Notably, 37% of builders cut prices, up from 35% in June and 32% in May; with the average price reduction being flat from prior months at 6%.

Pending home sales fell 5.4% M/M in June, below expectations of a 0.5% decline and ending the 4-month streak of gains and showing the most pronounced decline since December of 2025.


 

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