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Afternoon Note

Broadening Move

By John Jean, Research Analyst
6/30/2026 1:30 PM

Major indices reversed from earlier weakness and are higher across the board.

Technology (XLK) is in the lead and getting a boost particularly from semiconductor names. The AI trade is also helping to propel Industrials (XLI) into second place. Meanwhile the more defensive sectors such as Real Estate (XLRE) and Consumer Staples (XLP) are lagging.

There is notable breadth in the mid-caps (MDY) and small-caps (SPSM). Small-caps are clinching a new high while mid-caps are close to hitting a record. The recent uptrend in both shows the rally is broadening.

OpenAI reportedly found a way to optimize inference with the potential to cut costs in half, which would be a huge revolution in AI development.

Economic Data

The JOLTS report showed a 9,000 increase in job openings to 7.594M in May, the highest since May of last year and well above expectations of 7.3M. Leisure and hospitality was in the lead gaining 95K jobs, followed by trade, transportation, utilities, manufacturing, and construction. Meanwhile private education and health services saw the steepest decline.

Consumer Confidence rose to 91.2 in June from 90.6 last month and below the anticipated 94.7. The Present Situation Index fell 3 points to 116.4, offset by the Expectations Index rising 3 points to 74.4 as the US-Iran ceasefire reinvigorated outlook.

Single family home sales fell 0.1% M/M in April following an upwardly revised 0.2% increase in March and missing forecasts of a 0.2% increase.

Chicago PMI fell to 56.7 in June from 62.7 last month, primarily driven by weaker new orders and production, partially offset by supplier delivery increases.


 

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