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Afternoon Note

Middle Eastern Tensions

By John Jean, Research Analyst
7/8/2026 1:23 PM

Major indices are moving lower, but have recovered from their session lows following a reignition of Middle Eastern tensions (more below).

Energy (XLE) is in the lead and benefiting from an uptick in oil prices following skirmishes in the Middle East and indications these may continue. It is accompanied by the more risk off sector of Consumer Staples (XLP). Meanwhile, Materials (XLB) is at the bottom of the list as longer term rates move higher pressuring metal commodity prices. Meanwhile, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) is the second lowest on the list and seeing broad weakness, particularly in home improvement, construction, travel, and packaging related niches.

Under the surface, Technology (XLK) is seeing some strength and dip buying in semiconductors and hardware names.

Notably, Trump indicated we could see further skirmishes in the Middle East and that the ceasefire deal with Iran may be over. Although his tone has softened a little from prior comments.

As a result, the Ten-Year Treasury Yield (TNX) is up 6.2 basis points and retaking the 4.5% level.

In other news, Blue Origion is starting its first outside capital raise, seeking $10 billion at a $130 billion valuation.

Additionally, a new report out by Airbus forecasted air traffic will more than double by 2045 with a 3.9% annual growth rate.

We will be getting further details about what the Fed is thinking when the FOMC minutes are released at 2 PM ET.


 

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