Yesterday was a good session that withstood a barrage of reports that the “ceasefire” had ended as quickly as it began. Industrials (XLI) led the way, which is a great sign for efforts to reindustrialize the nation.

Chips Take the Lead

Lots of chip names finished among the biggest advancers on the session, along with optic names, which continue to smoke. Last year, semiconductors (SMH) took the lead coming out of the tariff tantrum, with a monster gap opening in May. Yesterday was a similar gap opening.

Waiting for the Bubble

Folks, I think tech is comparable to 1996 rather than 2000 or 2001. There is another major wave coming.

Too Much Heavy Lifting?

Yesterday, I marveled at the S&P 500 (SPX) opening above the 50 and 200-day moving averages after closing below them on Tuesday. Still, the three other times this has happened, the market was subsequently down 13%, 16%, and 14%.

This one breaks the pattern.

Mmm…Good

Call it “TACO” all you want, but it's been a marvelous spark for the market that critics should get over and learn to profit from. Nine of the 10 biggest sessions during Trump’s presidency have been the so-called “TACO” trade. According to the WSJ, owning stock on those days alone would have earned an investor 52%, compared to 12% from just buying and holding.

Fragile Truce

VP Vance called the ceasefire a “fragile truce,” so all eyes are on the flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Today’s Session

Equity futures have been down all morning long, but not panicking.  Crude is higher, and non-stop chatter and speculation surround the latest in the Iran Conflict.

For those looking long term, there is nothing but good news in the Technology (XLK) sector, where adoption trends continue at a mind-boggling pace. The AI revolution is moving so fast that companies are ringfencing certain products (see Anthropic’s Mythos).

Economic Data

Personal income swooned in February, and PCE edged higher as expected to 0.4 from 0.3.

All things considered, I like the action this morning – no more knee-jerk selling.

Comments

Sometimes when you don't know what to do, do nothing! Iran not moving their oil, so they are losing money along with everyone else. How long can they hold out? Glad I am not Trump. mike L moule on 4/9/2026 10:25:58 AM

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