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Morning Commentary


By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
4/10/2024 9:51 AM

It was another intense session yesterday, with the market trading in a narrow range. Buyers kept showing up on slight declines, but not enough could be seduced into taking the market higher. The biggest advancers were an eclectic bunch of names.

Inflation growth has slowed, but it's still elevated at a level too high for the general public.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) often follows the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) higher price trends – we might get a hint today.

Goldman Sachs (GS) laid out a detailed guide of its expectations:

However, the CPI has come in hotter than expected in the last three releases, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen again.

Today’s Session

The CPI number came in hotter than expected and the market is reacting harshly.  The string of hotter inflation reads keeps pushing off potential rate cuts, as the argument for any cuts in 2024 has diminishing markedly.

The pace of inflation has climbed steadily since Jay Powell and company predicted three rate cuts this year.

Real People Dealing with Real Pain

1. Car Insurance Inflation: 22.2%

2. Transportation Inflation: 10.7%

3. Car Repair Inflation: 8.2%

4. Hospital Services Inflation: 7.5%

5. Homeowner Inflation: 5.9%

6. Rent Inflation: 5.7%

7. Electricity Inflation: 5.0%

8. Food Away from Home Inflation: 4.2%

Market Reaction

Before that $1.9 trillion boost to the economy sparked the inflation crisis, we used the CPI report to help identify stock ideas based on pricing power.

Its anecdotal but a good input to the overall model. But these days, this kind of news cast a pall over everything; hence, the initial reaction right after the release was a sea of red.

For now, June and July rate cuts are off the table.


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