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Morning Commentary

WILL THE JOBS REPORT SEE ITS SHADOW?

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/2/2024 9:40 AM

As we have seen time after time, the market gathered itself after initially revolting against the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision and/or press conference.

The general assumption is there will still be rate cuts this year, drying the tears of those ‘pivot bros.’ The volume was impressive. The rate of change is holding up as well.

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The Fear & Greed gauge shows moderate greed, but there is no doubt that the fear of missing the next leg higher was the main catalyst for yesterday’s rebound.

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Sharing the Spotlight

All sectors except Energy (XLE) were higher, with traditional safe havens faring the best. What stood out even more was only one Technology (XLK) name among the top ten advancers.

This has me extremely excited.  

Green dominated the Heat Map.

S&P 500 Map

Market Breadth

Market breadth was overwhelmingly bullish, except for more new lows than highs on the NASDAQ Composite, which underscores the underreported fact this has been something of a feast or famine market.

Market Breadth

NYSE

NASDAQ

Advancers

2,230

2,739

Decliners

637

1,520

New Highs

148

105

New Lows

31

128

Up Volume

3.01 billion

3.44 billion

Down Volume

1.36 billion

1.56 billion

After the Bell

They all laughed as the trumpet played taps for the company formerly called Facebook. The stock was slaughtered, and grown men wept on national television for being so wrong and implored folks to cut bait and forgive them. The stock is up 400% since then.

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Sharing the Wealth

I didn’t understand the business enough to buy the dip, although I saw Mark Zuckerberg as a plus along the way.

I’m hesitant about the metaverse, but this quarter’s results for META were out of this world as a numbers guy.

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Cherry On Top

The cherry on top of this sweet revenge (you know Zuckerberg is grinning at all the haters right now) is the company announcing its first-ever dividend of $0.50.

Meta

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Name Change Time

When Facebook became Meta, I immediately thought about Ron Artest, the former NBA basketball star who changed his name to Metta World Peace in 2011.

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The name change was the year after he won a championship with the Los Angeles Lakers. He never won another championship, but his life seemed to be calmer.

There could be this name-changing thing. Perhaps someone could speak to Elon Musk about changing Tesla.

There were other big-time earnings winners after the close, but Apple (AAPL) wasn’t one of them. Now, all eyes turn to the jobs report.

January Jobs Report

Wall Street’s consensus is 180,000 jobs, but Goldman Sachs (GS) is looking for 250,000.

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But if the report is a dud, Goldman says we can blame it on the weather.

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The jobs report will move markets and tip the scales for the timing of the rate cut. But it's something of a farce. The world will go crazy, and the media will breathlessly fawn at a number without credibility with the initial release.

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Buckle Up! It’s Groundhog Day (and Cherie’s birthday); we’ve seen this movie before.

Today’s Session

The jobs report came in at a shocking 353,000 against consensus of 185,000.  It’s a great number, but I don’t think it will hold up upon revisions.

United States Non Farm Payrolls

I already have a couple of issues with it, including the participation rate coming in unchanged. Plus, the fact people earned less in January than December1.178.16 January

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The number of multiple jobholders is also a serious red flag.

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That said, it moves markets, and it took some of the air out of equity futures, and bond yields are flying.

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Comments
On Mornings with Maria this morning, I heard the comment that unemployment went down partly due to visa immigration. I tried to read your face during her comment and Iím pretty sure I saw a big B.S. FLAG wave right by. In fact it resembled the one I threw at my TV just prior! 😂🤣😂

Terry Lavis on 2/2/2024 8:50:00 AM
LMAO...talking about anything for 40 minutes on TV is a long time and people start reaching for stuff to sound smart. CP

Charles Payne on 2/2/2024 9:00:48 AM
Thank you for your show on Fox and for these daily reports. God Bless

Vernon Foster on 2/4/2024 10:10:16 AM
 

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