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Morning Commentary


By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/25/2023 9:42 AM

The market spent most of Friday's session higher, only to stumble hard and fast into the close.

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Slipping under the 50-day moving average is a major red flag, but there haven’t been any disastrous individual sessions.


Energy (XLE) edged higher, but Technology (XLK) enjoyed the best session.

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The dilemma is whether the market will rally without the top seven stocks leading the way. So far, the answer is no.

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On that note, chip stocks will have to be a leader to turn the current downturn around.  And that means Nvidia (NVDA) has to find its footing.  The good news is the stock put in a couple of intraday reversals higher, but the stock needs to get north of $440.

S&P 500 Map

Seasonality & Hope

The bad news: over the past 15 years, this has been the worst week for the stock market.

The good news: over the past 15- years after this week, the market has gone on a non-stop rip higher.


Portfolio Approach

There are no sector weighing changes in the Hotline Model Portfolio.

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Today’s Session

We are going to be hearing a lot about government shutting down this week which it’s going to sound scary. I’m sure lots of folks will come on TV and warn of the impact on the stock market but the fact is the economy and stock market have held up very nicely during government shutdowns.

Stock market soared last shut down.

Stocks have done OK during prior government shutdowns, Goldman Sachs' research shows.

The economy has flourished during shutdowns


Still, the bias is to the downside so let’s hold off. We are short term oversold and extreme negativity including monster short position by hedge funds.

Remember, when they had to cover this summer, it was their buying that helped send stocks higher.


Let’s standby for the moment.

There haven't been disastrous individual sessions. It's like the leaky annoying faucet, slowly dripping away. Guess there's no plumbers in the Biden administration.

Bill Frohberg on 9/25/2023 10:39:11 AM

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