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Morning Commentary


By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/19/2023 9:40 AM

It counts as a win, but it was a challenging outing yesterday. Energy (XLE) set the pace as the oil rally shifted into higher gear. Spec buyers rallied around Apple (AAPL), but Nvidia (NVDA) had the most impressive session after opening under huge pressure and watching the share slam to $423 before reversing to a close at $439.66.


S&P 500 Map

Market Breadth

Major equity indices closed fractionally in the plus column, but it was a tough session. That harshness of the session was reflected in several breadth indicators:

Major Indices

Market Breadth









New Highs



New Lows



Up Volume

980.53 million

2.04 billion

Down Volume

2.11 billion

2.78 billion

The S&P 500 remains locked in a tight range – this will not be the case much longer as there will be a decisive move.


Homebuilder Sentiment Sinks

The National Association of Homebuilder (NAHB) Sentiment came in at 45 from 50 in the prior month against Wall Street’s consensus of 49.

All segments declined, and only single-family sales remained above 50. Traffic has imploded, landing at 30 from 45.

Yet, housing stocks dominated, even as part of the weakest sector of the market (Consumer Discretionary, XLY). This kind of industry-wide weakness is often good for the large homebuilders, as smaller rivals struggle to stay in the game.

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Congratulations, America - we did it again. It only took 92 days for our national debt to spike to $33.0 trillion from $32.0 trillion.

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Meanwhile, the ten-year bond yield remains stubborn and close to a monumental breakout.


More data and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathering begins today.


Portfolio Approach

There are no sector weighting changes in the Hotline Model Portfolio this morning.

Today’s Session

Housing data out this morning saw a beat on permits but a huge miss on starts.

The decline in multifamily starts is remarkable and makes me wonder if this is the result of hollowing out of cities from working from home (WFH) and unrelenting crime.

United States Housing Starts

Just one day from the FOMC, we are looking for a quiet start; although, things could heat up into the close.

I agree on Charles views and enjoy reading his book and Fox TV show.. A good person!

Dennis R on 9/19/2023 11:43:28 AM

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