Morning Commentary
What a monster session ahead of a three-day weekend that serves as a reminder that freedom isn’t free.
Investors correctly assumed a debt ceiling deal would be reached between Speaker McCarty and President Biden. Now, it must make its way through Congress.
The question is whether it will be anti-climactic or open the door to a more meaningful move.
Meanwhile, Technology (XLK) is edging out Communication Services (XLC) as the hottest sector of the year, but the great news is based on the last two years; both have a ton more room on the upside.
Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI)
This Generative AI story is still in the early innings, but every company had better learn how to use it.
But, be warned, it’s not perfected yet.
Fundamentals
So far 97% of S&P 500 names have posted their financial results for the first quarter, and they have been much better than expected, especially on the revenue side, where I was most worried.
It will be telling to see how the market reacts to a possible rate hike at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting now that the debt drama is over. Unfortunately, the market ignored the shift last Friday.
This is going to be an amazing week. I think it could set the pace for the summer, if not the rest of the year.
Portfolio Approach
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Today’s Session
The US economy continues to be stronger than expected, and while it is borrowed money, it goes on the income statement.
The excess cash is down to $400 billion according to the San Francisco Fed. But theoretically, US consumers have another $3.5 trillion in unused credit card debt.
But we aren’t that crazy, right?
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5/8/2025 1:49 PM | First Trade Deal |
5/8/2025 9:37 AM | POWELL SEES NOTHING |
5/7/2025 12:53 PM | Powell Under Pressure |
5/7/2025 9:48 AM | THE LUXURY OF BEING GREEDY |
5/6/2025 1:20 PM | Anxiety Continues |
5/6/2025 9:45 AM | ANXIETY RETURNS |
5/5/2025 1:18 PM | Market Consolidating |
5/5/2025 9:41 AM | MID-CAP MUSCLE |
5/2/2025 1:19 PM | Labor Market Resilience |
5/2/2025 9:57 AM | BACK TO THE STARTING LINE |
5/1/2025 1:31 PM | Big Tech Resilience |
5/1/2025 9:52 AM | MAMA SAID |
4/30/2025 1:35 PM | Midday Recovery |
4/30/2025 9:52 AM | BIG HITTERS ON DECK |
4/29/2025 1:49 PM | Fluctuating |
4/29/2025 9:48 AM | BUY SIGNALS & RECESSION TALK |
4/28/2025 1:22 PM | Earnings Angst |
4/28/2025 10:03 AM | BIG TEST |
4/25/2025 1:16 PM | Quiet Friday |
4/25/2025 9:57 AM | HYSTERIA TO HOPE |
4/24/2025 1:12 PM | Solid Session |
4/24/2025 9:35 AM | VIOLENT SWINGS AND THE RECOVERY |
4/23/2025 1:45 PM | Fears Ease |
4/23/2025 9:38 AM | FUNDAMENTALS & HOPE |
4/22/2025 12:42 PM | Tuesday Reputation |
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