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Morning Commentary


By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
5/22/2023 9:48 AM

It was a choppy session on Friday, but a great week overall for the stock market.

With the assumption that June 1st is the so-called “X-Date” when the treasury runs out of money, there was a sinking feeling that a deal had to be done over the weekend. I interviewed Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas, and he assured me June 1st isn’t the deadline. In fact, Goldman Sachs (GS) is modeling the nation’s cash to run out by the third week of July. Don’t tell lawmakers that date, or this thing will never happe


The Experts Getting Crushed

The fastest start in the history of the so-called FAANG (plus three other names) must be crushing hedge funds and professional investors - that not only blew off mega-cap growth as a relic of the past but bet big on its demise. At some point, they will have to become buyers.

And don’t look now, but we saw two days in a row of more new highs than lows on the NASDAQ. The streak could pick up steam this week from the earnings calendar.

Earnings Parade

This week, Nvidia (NVDA) looms large as a report; Snowflake and other software names have been acting great and have gotten a chance to live up to the hype. The iShares North American Tech-Software (IGV) Exchange Traded-Fund (ETF) broke a big resistance point last week and should be able to rally to form a double top, but it will need strong guidance to break out from that point.

Portfolio Approach

There are no sector weighting changes this morning in our Hotline Model Portfolio.

Today’s Session

So, when does the government run out of money?

It’s hard to say, but the easy answer seems to be ‘soon.’ There was $116 billion (chart below) in the till last Wednesday, but the TGA statement from last Monday underscores more is going out than coming in.  Last Monday, there was a net decline of $52.513 billion in the operating cash budget.  The biggest line items:

This morning, James Bullard is flapping his gums big time.  The St. Louis Fed President is looking for two more rate hikes.


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