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Morning Commentary


By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
3/31/2023 9:37 AM

I must admit the strength exhibited in the closing bell yesterday was intriguing, although we put on a ‘long’ idea on the swing trading service at 3 PM. This market looks poised for a huge move higher.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicate much more room on the upside.

The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) reveals there is weakness.

Broad Market Review

Ten of eleven sectors finished higher, but sadly, the only decliner was Financials (XLF).

Once again, the NASDAQ --100 (NDX) proves a body in motion stays in motion (big time). And airlines look very intriguing.

But companies outside the United States powered the move.

We are watching crude oil closely. There have been lots of false alarms, but this move should last to $80.00.  A close north of that level will attract lots of buyers and potentially lift it to $85.00+.

Everyone is bracing for this morning’s read on inflation. Experts say don’t look for much of a decline in the headline numbers, and maybe, core numbers  edge higher.

On that score, it was an odd close when all the pros are saying to keep your head down and hide in a bunker.  Hmm…

Portfolio Approach

There are no sector changes this morning to our Hotline Portfolio Approach.

Today’s Session

There is a bunch of data out this morning, which has the probability of a 25-bps rate hike at the My FOMC a 50-50 proposition.

Personal income climbed 0.5% against the consensus of 0.2%, while personal spending came in at 0.2% against the consensus of 0.3%.   Consequentially, savings are up again to 4.5% from 3.0% in September.

Personal Consumption Expenditure

Top Five Sub-Categories

Core Service ex-Housing declined to the lowest level in seven months.

I thought equity futures would have displayed more oomph.  Maybe they will pick up,


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