The market has been all over the place. While it is higher now, it feels extremely vulnerable. Last week there was nowhere to hide, but large cap growth fared better and remains substantially ahead of value.
Today, defensive names are up nicely, as cyclicals take it on the chin.
But this is all tenuous. Last Friday the market opened lower, then it staged a strong bounce before running out of steam, and freefalling into the close. I do like that we can watch individual names and sectors for a feel for what may come back the fastest and strongest.
The establishment is playing a dangerous game to justify their own bailout. If they say people are on the verge of making runs on banks enough, maybe that will happen. I went to a few banks on Saturday and there was zero fear or anxiety.
Powell Next Move
The street now sees Powell & Co hiking only 25 bps, but there is a growing sense on the street there will be no additional rate hikes. It’s hard to say what the Fed is going to do, but I already felt they had come on too harshly and were already crushing middle income families.
There are still the CPI and Retail Sales reports this week. I think when the dust settles, the Fed will have to pause. For now, this is a great swing trading environment for those that are swift and disciplined. But the biggest lesson learned this weekend is it is good to have some cash on hand.
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