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Morning Commentary


By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
3/9/2023 9:34 AM

Yesterday was a tense session that could have gone off the rails, but instead, just enough buyers showed up to nudge the S&P 500 higher. Seven sectors were higher, led by cyclical and defensive names.

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But semiconductor names enjoyed the biggest gains. I love this VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) chart- I think everyone needs exposure to chips.

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The real story remains the resolve of the market, which continues to hold above the 200-day moving average.

StockCharts also points out the indices that held their 50-day moving average.


State of the Economy

We continue to get mixed messages on the strength of the economy. For example, the Atlanta Fed marked the first quarter of 2023 (1Q23) with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 2.6% from 2.0% and real Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) at 5.2% from 3.8% based on international trade data.

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But The Beige Book Was Simply Beige.


There were fewer mentions of “Inflation.”


And a big decline in instances of “Slow.”

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This morning’s Initial Jobless Claims will move the needle. Stay tuned.

Portfolio Approach

We are added a new position yesterday in Technology to our Hotline Model Portfolio.

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Today’s Session

It was bound to happen – initial jobless claims came in higher than consensus.  At 211,000; it’s the highest number going back to mid-December. The street was looking for 195,000.

United States Initial Jobless Claims

The pop isn’t as important as the notion of a surprise in tomorrow’s BLS jobs report.   After beating the street ten times in a row, it would be a good hunch the report will come in below consensus.  Of course, that same rationale seemed spot on after five, six, seven, eight and nine beats in a row.



Charles, you need to show up on Gutfeld more often!!

Kevin on 3/9/2023 1:33:19 PM

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