The recession, soft landing debate continues, and while there are fewer ‘experts’ saying there will be a deep recession, most say totally avoiding it is a fairy tale.  It’s true, there’s a moment of Goldilocks in the air as hope grows the Fed will say one more hike, and then, a pause at the next FOMC.  Meanwhile, prices are coming down faster.

Philly Fed Service Survey saw a sharp decline in prices paid.

And business see less cost growth this year from last.

There is alot of anticipation for the first mega cap name in 2023 to report its financial results. Microsoft (MSFT) is expected to post revenue of $52.96 billion and earnings of $2.29. This is down from consensus of $2.55 three months ago.  Here’s the good news.  The company usually beats and a week after, the shares are much higher – except, it was the exact opposite last time.

As earnings roll out, the reaction in bonds will be even more important. The next time the ten-year yield gets under 3.37%, and close there, it could spark massive buying.