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Afternoon Note

Soft Landing?

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
1/9/2023 1:32 PM

There is now an uptick in strategists and economists who were talking about a soft landing for the US economy, although few are willing to put such a notion on the record.

But last week, it saw a month to month decline in employment, sharp pullback in wage growth and ISM service slipped into contraction. The precipitous drop in prices paid in the ISM earlier in the week points to an economic freefall.

This morning, the NY Fed released its survey of consumer expectations which saw one-year inflation down to 5.0% from 5.2% in November and 6.8% in June.

More intriguing to me is while households see income rising, spending is lurching into free fall. 

Interestingly, JP Morgan is now saying 'excess savings' are under $1.0 trillion.

In the words of Rick Ross, we are blowing money fast.

I like how the market is holding here.

And yet the Administration keeps reporting that the Americans have plenty of savings. Not surprising they try to spin the narrative, but still...the data does not lie.

David Dial on 1/9/2023 1:54:48 PM
The Household Excess Savings chart looks just like my portfolio performance in 2022.
Go figure.

Paul K on 1/9/2023 2:07:06 PM
Happy New Year

William Turnbough on 1/9/2023 2:32:56 PM
I hear you Mr. Dial. My IRA was down $165K this year. The good news is that my 2022 IRA RMD was $55K but had $56K in dividends and interest. Our total portfolio (5 accts) was down 7.01%. Thank you Brandon!

William Hall on 1/10/2023 12:31:29 AM

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