The market marched into the weekend, still carrying that head of steam from Thursday, with growth sectors leading the way. Energy (XLE) bounced on China’s reopening news.
Warren Buffett is famous for holding long-term and cheering when stocks move lower, but he is not a buy-on-dip investor. Instead, he looks for real value and real bargains. I think there are real bargains out there, and that’s what’s making this market tough. Near-term, do you take a 10% risk for 50% long-term (two-year) gains? The answer is simple when posed this way, but if that 10% becomes 20% or 30%, then the equation changes.
Therefore, we altered the approach for double-digit pops and the ability for nimbleness to avoid winding up with no cash and all open positions under. Meanwhile, according to J.P. Morgan (JPM), the daily order imbalance suggests a lot of retail investors have bitten the bullet. I hate that because it’s considered the ultimate ‘buy signal’ for professional investors.
Watch the Fed
With all the major economic data out already and midterms behind us, there is even more focus on the Federal Reserve. So, this is what I want to see:
There are no sector weighting changes this morning in our Hotline Model Portfolio.
Well, Fed Governor Waller is giving us a preview of how hard the Fed will go this week to sink the stock market. He admitted Powell laid it on thick during the Q&A session at the FOMC because "we knew the markets were going to jump for joy." That is why the focus is also on where rates ultimate go is more important than the pace.
|The FED'S job is to ensure a stable dollar and a stable banking system period.BUT THEY CAN'T SHUT UP. Is this a new version of The View???|
Michael D Thomas on 11/14/2022 9:32:37 AM
|Personally, I believe the Fed has gone far enough at this point regarding rate increases. I'm not an economist and never claims to be. However, there seems a tipping point coming and it's a double edge sword on both the personal and government debt side.|
Government debt financing is increasing future outflows in servicing it. On the other side from an individual perspective, I can see cracks forming for anyone facing higher interest charges on carried balance on credit cards and in the housing sector of anyone who have ARM loan adjustments coming due.
Terry Dowler on 11/14/2022 12:13:46 PM
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