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Morning Commentary

It's Fed Day But Look For Sunlight

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/21/2022 9:32 AM

Hello darkness, my old friend

I've come to talk with you again

Because a vision softly creeping

Left its seeds while I was sleeping

And the vision that was planted in my brain

Still remains

Within the sound of silence

Days of struggle, and the market constantly moving lower, can feel like sitting in a dark room with receding hope.  But the darker this room gets, the closer we are to light.

Moreover, a lot of that darkness is from the fact that the room is packed like a crowded bomb shelter. The windows could be open with the curtains pulled back, but shadows of fear are like black holes, and those rays of sunlight never reach your pupils.

I’ve been there too many times.

And that’s why I’m inclined to agree with Simon & Garfunkel: Hello Darkness, My Old Friend.

The good times were, and even when they were supposed to be bad, the Fed was a friend.  The Fed still wants to be, our friend but the mission calls.  The mission to undo a lot of their own handiwork and the more recent free money that’s still flooding into the economy.

That means 75 bps today and maybe 75 bps at the November meeting as well.  But there are several data releases between now and then that could change the narrative.  And that is why today is so important.

Will Jay Powell risks giving a sliver of hope by admitting a few inflations reads hint at hope, which is a no-no in this environment.  In fact, on the checklist toward ‘mission accomplished’ the Fed must extract all hope. The Fed is looking for capitulation and compliance. No speaking or listening to anything that might disturb their handiwork.                                                                                                                                                      

People talking without speaking

People hearing without listening

People writing songs that voices never shared

And no one dared

Disturb the sound of silence

Market Breadth

Yikes!  It was just an ugly session with underlying market breadth to prove it.

Market Breadth









New Highs



New Lows



Up Volume

512.27 million

1.03 billion

Down Volume

3.50 billion

3.00 billion

Apple (AAPL) continues to get good vibes from its new iPhone, but the stock had no coattails yesterday.  It couldn’t even help its tech brethren.

Fed’s Checklist

Financial conditions are racing higher, but the stock market is still too strong according to Fed watchers.

GDP Drift

Oh boy, check out 3Q22 GDP forecast from the Atlanta Fed.  It’s down to +0.3%. Gulp!

Portfolio Approach

We closed a position in Technology this morning in our Hotline Model Portfolio.

Today’s Session

Everyone is bracing for the Fed. Meanwhile, I’m keeping a closer eye on Russia, as Vladimir Putin has taken Saber Rattling to a new level.  A nuclear level.  On the heels of Ukrainian separatists announcing a vote to become part of Russian this Friday, Vladimir Putin gave a very unnerving speech to the Russian people that sent our markets swooning at 3:00 am, before regaining composure.

The speech also caused a spike on a poplar Russian travel site – apparently, folks are looking for quick one-way tickets out of the country.

"Be Greedy When Others are Fearful." I bot NVDA 9/15 @ $128.87. Bot WHR 9/20@ $142.05.
How many consecutive quarters of negative GDP is it going to take before people believe the USA is in a recession. How long before the majority believe the bottom was not put in in June? How long before people realize inflation will be higher for longer?

Charles Haselberger on 9/21/2022 10:07:34 AM
please remind jay powell he can't control the inflation rate because he doesn't control the price of oil; oil prices effect everything in the economy plus he has no control of rent prices and wages. plus employers don't want to lay off tech people that they have spent huge dollars on because of the shortage of these employees. The only way he can get to 2% inflation is a severe recession!!

william slutz on 9/21/2022 6:34:32 PM

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