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Morning Commentary

BIDENíS BLAME GAME BLOWS RALLY ATTEMPT

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
6/23/2022 9:41 AM

Yesterday could have been worse, but the session was still something of a disappointment. Fence-sitters liked what they heard from Powell, but not enough to be seduced off the sidelines.

Market Breadth

NYSE

NASDAQ

Advancers

1,541

2,206

Decliners

1,734

2,398

New Highs

5

10

New Lows

270

304

Up Volume

2.05 billion

2.78 billion

Down Volume

2.93 billion

2.37 billion

The S&P 500 climbed out of a giant hole, but momentum faded after President Biden spoke about his latest gimmick to curb oil prices.

Biden Falls Flat

It was an embarrassing performance as President Biden tried to make complaints against higher gasoline prices the same as siding with Vladimir Putin. Calling for a three-month suspension of the federal gas tax  

is more pathetic than raiding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

Blasting gas station owners who make money on cigarettes and soda to make a sacrifice during wartime was an especially mean punch to the gut.

Mentioning refineries was rich since his administration would never greenlight the building of new refineries in one million years. But I think it’s the comments from Evercore ISI that probably expressed the real reason all the air left the market.

Energy (XLE) was the worst-performing sector. The structure of oil points to big periodic moves, but for now, investors are cashing partly because it’s the only place they have any profits.

Tough Year

We are on the cusp of having the second-worst first half in history; only 1932 was worse.  It is remarkable how awful it’s been.

And chasing hasn’t really helped. The momentum trade, which worked like a charm for years, but even more so coming out of the pandemic bottom, is down almost 20% this year.

And we aren’t talking mega-cap tech stocks, but the hot names that investors chased in part because they were moving and felt safe.

Industry Watch

Keep an eye on the transportation names. The transportation sector (IYT) is trying to hold on, but failure would be a bad omen.

Globalism Run Amok

I have mixed emotions when I see the Evergreen Ace with containers stacked as high as skyscrapers.

I think of research that says no less than 3.7 million American jobs have been lost from our trade deficit with China between 2001 and 2018 alone.

I see billions of dollars leaving the United States, along with its power and prosperity.

I see the despair in the heartland that’s driving the opioid crisis.

We gave away our steel industry and it should be no problem if we ever go to war with China to just ask them to keep the metals and rare earth elements coming.

I get 'comparative advantage,' and I’m for free and fair trade, but it’s time to get smart. Selling inexpensive TVs at Walmart and cheap smartphones online give the illusion of a good life, but it’s a mirage.

Comfort is fine, but not the foundation for economic freedom. China learned this from their Opium crisis, and they got a big break when the West let them in and allowed them to play by different rules.

The tables have turned, and while it looks surreal that a giant ship with all those containers is no mirage – it’s our sad new reality. 

Portfolio Approach

There are no sector weighting changes this morning.

Today’s Session

I’m liking the action more, and it seems there is a little less hysteria about the Fed – operative word is ‘little.’

You know the drill. There is no number the market can open higher and feel safe.  Right now, there is a sell the rip effort that involves pushing the market higher in hopes of getting smaller investors to take the bait.


Comments
Can anyone tell me when the Biden administration or Congress declared war. I keep hearing were in a time of war And I donít remember anybody declaring war

Terry on 6/23/2022 11:16:43 AM
Nobody talks about the 2 million metric tons of CO2 spewed a day from the cargo ships.
A oil pipeline would save 10's of millions of tons of CO2 emissions.
The quivery is far from empty.

Paul Krueger on 6/23/2022 1:17:08 PM
 

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