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Afternoon Note

Long Term Endeavor

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
5/11/2022 1:21 PM

The market put on a brave face, but it is beginning to stumble as we head toward the closing bell.

That CPI report is an anchor holding down the doors of a would-be sigh of relief rally that has been put on hold. 


The market is oversold, and coming into the session, less than 8% of the S&P Tech sector was above their 200-day moving average.  That’s carnage pure and simple.


If we finished the day lower, it would be par for the 2022 course. The S&P 500 has only been up 43% of the time this year- the fewest to this point since 1974.


What I can’t figure is why the VIX is lower?

There will be a huge relief rally – a classic bear market move I want to be a part of. But right now, cash is king.  I am looking at the bond market for a bounce as well.


If you allow the jackals to spook you out of the market at this point, they will devour the stocks you sell. And later, when you are comfortable, you will buy them back at much higher prices.  That’s the history of the stock market and it has worked over and over again.

This is not to say that the bona-fide losers, which will never come back, shouldn’t be sold or reduced. 

But have some cash and be ready to chip away – I hope in large chunks. But this has always been a long-term endeavor, and while it won’t happen overnight, there will be a phase where it comes back faster. You have to be long when that happens.



CP: Correct me if I'm wrong. My memory says we had a recession in 74, did we not? I did not take time to research before responding with this comment.

Charles Haselberger on 5/11/2022 1:41:52 PM
The general comments pre-market:
* Inflation has peaked
* CPI will be lower
* Market looks to open higher
At an hour before close DJX, NDX, SPX, Russell 2k and the VIX are all down. A paranoid mind would think the talking heads are talking up the situation to "sell to the dips".

Good thing I'm not paranoid.

Jeffrey J. Riddell on 5/11/2022 3:03:49 PM

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