The market continues to reflect uncertainty while ignoring positive news and trends. Manufacturing data today and yesterday, plus retail sales that crushed consensus, are being ignored. However, this could be a good thing.
Hear me out.
Rallies have to be tested. You want weaker hands to move out the way so fresh legs can start and take out prior high points. As for the anxiety, it's going to be with us for a long time, until we get a sense of inflation, stagflation, and the Fed.
I do not see the Fed tapering bond purchases anytime soon - more than likely it will be early next year. Even if it happens sooner, it’s not a big deal. Sure, Wall Street will whine and throw a tantrum, but small incremental declines from $120 billion a month is not material enough to change the market. Conversely, tapering means the economy is stronger. We want organic strength to power gains because it's more self-fulfilling and can be a better foundation than borrowing or printing phantom money.
Meanwhile, we’ve raised cash in the model portfolio, I'm champing at the bit.
|Couldn't agree with you more. Tapering to begin later rather than sooner. Amount inconsequential when viewed in context of Fed Balance Sheet.|
Charles Haselberger on 9/16/2021 2:41:46 PM
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