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Morning Commentary

IS SANTA ALREADY HERE?

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/27/2019 9:37 AM

Question of the Week

As we head into Thanksgiving, and the holiday season, what are you thankful for?

Post your answer below.

Another day, another rally session that got stronger into the close. The fact is the market might be rallying on muscle memory, and the memory of those that know Santa Claus rallies can come very early.  

The market was up fractionally, and the market breadth tightened more than recent sessions.

NYSE

NASDAQ

Back in the Winners Circle

Observation: the gulf between new highs and lows underscores the fact investors are once again putting chasing stocks above value.

S&P 500 Index

+0.22%

 

Communication Services (XLC)

+0.33%

 

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

+0.68%

 

Consumer Staples (XLP)

+0.81%

 

Energy (XLE)

 

-0.92%

Financials (XLF)

 

-0.10%

Health Care (XLV)

 

-0.08%

Industrials (XLI)

+0.29%

 

Materials (XLB)

+0.50%

 

Real Estate (XLRE)

+1.39%

 

Technology (XLK)

+0.09%

 

Utilities (XLU)

+0.33%

 

Real Estate has been the most compelling sector of 2019 because it’s been rocking and never gets any press. I love the names in the sector associated with the build out of 5G (fifth generation), and I also love the storage plays, as America is on the move again. There was some cautious buying, reflecting strength in Consumer Staples.

Best Buy Co., Inc.

+7.32

+9.86%

UNDER ARMOUR INC

+0.80

+5.11%

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC.

+29.33

+3.73%

UNDER ARMOUR INC

+0.63

+3.63%

Abiomed Inc.

+6.69

+3.57%

Hormel Foods Corp.

+1.52

+3.55%

Today’s Session

The U.S. trade deficit in goods declined 6% in October to a 17-month low of $66.5 billion. Some would interpret this as tariffs are working and suggest the fourth quarter (4Q) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could be better than current estimates.

Some fret these numbers point to the persistently slow global economic picture, and along with the sharp decline in auto imports, are worrisome.

 

Meanwhile, there is a slate of data releases today, including:

Many market and economic naysayers are looking for signs in the durable goods report to be the crack in the nation’s economic armor. It turns out even the Fed was more concerned about the economy than they led us to believe.   

Will businesses holding out on capital expenditures (Capex) upend the market, or are they taking a greater risk of not keeping up with rivals?

Portfolio Approach

After sliding in September, Durable Goods were expected to contract 0.9%, but instead surprised to the upside, rising 0.6% MoM after a downward revised 1.4% drop in September.

Additionally, Business Investments rose 0.8% MoM, the biggest jump since January of this year, and beating expectations of -0.2%.

GDP up nicely reversed driven by upward revisions of inventory investment, business investment, and consumer spending.

Initial jobless claims fell sharply, near historic lows and reflecting the strength in the U.S. labor market. Initial jobless claims declined by 15,000 to 213,000 in the week ending on November 23rd.

Let’s keep our powder dry this morning.

There will be No Afternoon Note: Happy Thanksgiving


Comments
We are blessed that we have our health, family and friends, and enough money to carry us through our old age and also give back to society and share our blessings with our neighbors.
All this comes through our love for and in Christ. I pray as a nation we stop turning our backs on God and the Divine establishment Principles this nation was founded on.

James Cuff on 11/27/2019 10:33:57 AM
That I live in a free country where people can express their differences unlike Iran... my health.... and that Donald Trump is our president. Ip the Dow.

Scott Havsy on 11/27/2019 11:52:16 AM
I AM THANKFUL TRUMP IS PRESIDENT AND OBAMA IS GONE

ernest remus on 11/27/2019 1:14:48 PM
I am thankful that Donald Trump is president.

Gary Fox on 11/27/2019 2:50:44 PM
I am thankful for being able to live long enough to fulfill my long long dream of seeing a person willing to go to the White House and do what he said he would do and take no guff from anyone. As the Hag sang when that happens we will all be drinking that free bubble up and eating that rainbow stew. How is you stew. Mine is just right. Now we move on and elect some like minded people next November so we can solve the big problems that have been wrapped around the neck of progress.

Robert Clanton on 11/27/2019 3:32:50 PM
I'm thankful for & agree with all of the above comments. I am also thankful for Charles Payne because I appreciate how he's so positive on the right issues and understands what's really going on in this world with the economy and doesn't try to persuade folks with wrong perceptions of our President like most other influential people are doing in the media outlets and congress. Thank you, Charles Payne!

Steve Herrmann on 11/28/2019 11:51:08 AM
We have so much to be thankful for, family, fairly good health, my wife who is one of God's best. As Dr. Carson once said, paraphrasing here...we've already won because we were born in the USA. Most of all I'm thankful for Jesus.

James Carr on 11/29/2019 5:00:33 PM
James you are one hundred percent correct.† We are blessed and must build on those blessings.† Enjoy the holidays.† CP

Charles Payne on 11/30/2019 12:16:37 PM
faith family friends health (and a hell of a lot more to be thankful for).... and the Falcons for their losing season... now if Santa could bring us a bust in the last four games so we can have a good draft pick :))))

Blake Fortune on 12/10/2019 1:17:41 PM
 

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