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Morning Commentary

RANGE-BOUND FRUSTRATION

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
9/4/2019 9:31 AM

Yesterday, the market tumbled out the gate and took another hit on news of the first contraction in manufacturing in three years, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Major indices closed off the lowest points of the session, but it’s clear there has to be a shift in the narrative on trade, and I think the Fed needs to get a sustained upside move.

It looks as if we'll have to wait for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathering for the next move by Powell & Co, and perhaps an official date for China's trade delegation to come to the United States for the next round of negotiations. Of course, the right tweet could also supercharge the market, but I highly doubt that's coming anytime soon.

China has sounded conciliatory but raised tariffs with the United States over the past weekend. 

Still, when Chinese Vice Premier Liu met yesterday with a delegation led by U.S. Senator Steve Daines and Senator David Perdue in Beijing, he offered this same line, which sounds more like a cliché than a positive overture:

“hope that the two sides could deepen mutual understanding, seek common ground while reserving differences, and properly resolve problems on the basis of equality and mutual respect.”

Common ground would be playing by the rules.

While that saga plays out, Great Britain has been thrust into the news again over the latest efforts of the establishment to deny the Brits a break from their linkage to the European Union (EU). A vote last night moved the nation closer to a snap election that might once and for all decide if Brexit happens.   The gambit would stage a showdown between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn or capitalism versus socialism.

Maybe it’s a preview of our own 2020 election.

For now, the market remains range-bound, and while I know many are becoming frustrated, there is no need to panic. 

Today’s Session

News out from Hong Kong that China extradition, that sparked the uprising, is going to be withdrawn has added fuel to the stock market.  I think there are several reasons for this:

  • The market salutes notion of freedom.
  • China changing its mind could be seen as blinking and losing face, which speaks well for a trade resolution.

There are four other demands from Hong Kong protests, so there will be more gatherings and maybe China will have an excuse to use violence after extending this olive branch. I hope that's not the case but certainly a possibility. For the moment, it should be cheered as a battle victory as the war continues.

I like the way the market closed yesterday and how it’s opening this morning. There is major pent-up demand.


Comments
President Trump should state China Tariffs = US Tariffs + Theft

Done. Everyone now has a definitive operating model. Everyone has certainty. US should stop negotiating with China. Period. They have not honored any piece of western paper agreement. They have no Honor.

Kenneth J Knight on 9/4/2019 12:49:14 PM
 

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