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Morning Commentary

Consumers Stand Strong

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/23/2018 9:22 AM
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The market is open for half a session today, but most experts say the results will be largely inconsequential because it’s too short and too many important players are off to some exotic getaway.  If you take the notion that half a day is too short to assess the health of the economy, and the stock market, you should apply that to one-week and one-month action as well. 

The fact of the matter is, the rally has been selective for many years. That of course, has become truer in recent weeks.  I bring this up because making decisions in your portfolio based on macro moves, or the action in price, or market cap weighted indices, is going to be a big mistake.

For the year, there are winners that would surprise many people.  Some of the biggest winners are big losers for those that got in at much higher prices.  In those instances, investors must do serious homework before taking losses or adding to lower their average cost.

I know the market is a forward-looking mechanism, but near-term issues that are partly pure guesses, and partly obstacles that can be fixed, are exacerbating common knowledge of slower economies and profit growth.  Slower isn’t the same as negative. 

S&P 500 Index 2018 YTD



Communication Services (XLC)



Consumer Discretionary (XLY)



Consumer Staples (XLP)



Energy (XLE)



Financials (XLF)



Health Care (XLV)



Industrials (XLI)



Materials (XLB)



Real Estate (XLRE)



Technology (XLK)



Utilities (XLU)



Today’s Session

Talk about downside bias and sticking to the script, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished Wednesday lower.  This pattern of instantly selling the moment buying dries up, points to a buyer’s strike as much as persistent sellers. But each leg lower tests holders, and invariably shakes some of them out of positions.  Much of this has been on autopilot and machine/algorithm driven.  

Consumers Stand Strong

American consumers are stepping up to the plate big time. 

Adobe Analytics online shopping details:


November 1 to November 22:

We’ll keep an eye on retailers today, which have endured a difficult week.  We are also watching crude oil prices, which are plunging again in part to suspicions more Iranian oil is hitting the world market, finding ways around U.S. sanctions.

Our buy list is bulging and looking so enticing.  We’ll keep honing it for macro impact and company-specific trends. 

Happy belated Thanksgiving and don’t forget small business Saturday tomorrow.  There will be no afternoon Hotline.  Have a great weekend.

Thanks for setting David Stockman straight this morning on Varney.

William Brown on 11/23/2018 9:58:21 AM
Charles, thankyou for putting the windup dog outside. Seriously listening to David stockman made us mute most of his comments unfortunately the still showed up in closed CAPTIONING. But ,we are NOT changing a channel when Charles PAYNE is on. Hopefully you had a great Thanksgiving. Let's get this g20 over with,& bulls can rally thru Feb & 2019 MSFT will be hitting $1Trilllion.

J on 11/26/2018 2:25:13 AM
Thanks a lot. Those are so difficult and to me such a waste of time. Some people come on to throw bombs make outlandish statements or personal attacks. David hated Obama's policies and hates Trump's polices which is like hating day and night. Thanks for your support. CP

Charles Payne on 11/26/2018 7:47:06 AM

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