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Afternoon Note

Lots of Data

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/16/2018 2:08 PM
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There has been quite a bit of data out today.  We got a read on housing with starts and permits for January.  Starts were up 9.7% versus estimates of 4.2%. Permits were up 7.4%.   This is welcomed news for a housing market that has supply constraints, especially for single-family and first buyers. 



(In 000's)

Change M/M




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(In 000's)

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We received the latest import and export prices.  Import prices were up 1% in January versus the estimate for an increase of 0.6%.   Excluding oil, import prices rose 0.5% after declining 0.1% in December.  Export prices excluding agriculture increased 0.9% from a revised 0.1% in December.



The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February climbed to 99.9 from 95.7 in January. This is the highest reading since October when it was 100.7, which has the highest since 2004. 

Despite the volatility in the stock market, consumer sentiment is high, and people are optimistic about government policies, financial conditions improving, and expectations for larger wage gains in the coming year.

“Favorable references to government policies were cited by 35% in February, unchanged from January, and the highest level recorded in more than a half century.”



Metals on Wilbur Ross comments – administration determined to fight un-fair trade


The markets are all in the green, after whip sawing a bit after Bob Mueller announced that 13 Russians nationals and 3 Russian entities have been indicted for multiple crimes to interfere with the 2016 Presidential Election.  In remarks from Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, he said there is no evidence that any Americans knowingly participated or that it directly impacted the outcome of the election.  


That calmed the markets, and its back to the races.   Advancers outpace decliners 1915/1016 on the NYSE and 1563/1095 on the Nasdaq. 


Charles, are you all in now that 25200 seems to be holding? Or do you expect the normal 2nd test of the bottom?

B Edward Conway on 2/16/2018 2:28:01 PM
To your point its been tested a few times as resistance and support today already. This is normal action if this is going to be an important number. I would expect a 500-1000 point rally then one more big test of the number. CP

Charles Payne on 2/16/2018 2:51:34 PM
Pretty benign report. Should bode well for more up movement in equities.

James S Carpenter on 2/16/2018 2:29:49 PM
Thanks for your detailed, insightful analysis! Are you concerned that the S&P 500 tested the 21 day simple moving average from below and rejected it? The S&P 500 rode up this moving average on the way up, so it seems likely that it could ride it on the way down, to me. Thanks!

Rich on 2/16/2018 4:02:09 PM
The Resitance left wing must be really upset that the economy is improving enven after all their efforts to sabotage it.

Fred Heimann on 2/17/2018 12:33:01 PM

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