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Market Commentary

First Rally Attempt Failed

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
2/5/2018 12:46 PM
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Whiplash anyone?  The major indices opened significantly lower, the Dow down more than 300 points.  Then, around 10:30, there was a reversal, and the market headed higher; however, now the markets are going south, again, and the Dow is down 244. 

The intra-day parameters have been established.  For the Dow the next rally, above 25,345, could spark buy programs, and 25,165, where the bottom falls out, is we move lower. 

The U.S ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI index jumped to 59.9 in January of 2018, beating the market forecast of 56.5 from an upwardly revised 56 in December. The reading pointed to the strongest expansion in the services sector since August of 2005 amid rising production, new orders and employment, which was the strongest on record.

Faster increases were seen for:

On the other hand, inventories declined (49 from 53.5) and prices increased (61.9 from 59.9). 

Investors are grappling with inflation risk as we continue to get good economic data, and many continue to talk about valuation risk; however, Price to Earnings (PE) is only 17.8 forward earnings and the political uncertainty with another potential government shut down.   The VXX, or fear index as it is commonly referred, has gone from 17 to 19, back to 17 and now is climbing again as investor uncertainty is firmly in place.  The debate about 2%-4% rates hikes continues and for now, gyrations in the market are the new normal.

Decliners sharply outpace advancers 1914/1011 on the NYSE and 1760/891 on the Nasdaq.  Consumer Discretionary, Materials, Technology and Utilities have been the bright spots while Consumer Staples, Energy, Financials and Health Care are the laggards. 

I recently did some research to see how the Dow Average is being computed these days. If you add up the stocks in the Dow Average, you see that the total is no way near the average that we see posted daily. So there is a calculation. What the people have seen today is a drop of 1000 points. Someone on Fox should take the initiative to explain that 1000 points is not 1000 dollars and how the Average is calculated. It could save people from having heart failure or even worse, jumping out a window from the first floor. Periodic tutorials would be a plus to any business show.

Tom Amodeo on 2/5/2018 6:18:56 PM

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