"Buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of trumpets." -Nathan Rothschild

I’m not so sure how much the market will sell off once a deal with Iran becomes official, but the oil market thinks it's close, and the “fear index” (VIX) is as calm as it's been in months.

Consumer Sigh of Relief

The rapid decline in crude oil prices is welcome news for consumers and is immediately reflected in the stock market.

Automakers continue to move higher, but all sub-industries received bids yesterday. Gasoline doesn’t come down as fast as it goes up, but as it starts moving lower, watch consumers step up. Note: Retail sales have come in above Wall Street consensus each month this year.

Strong breadth for Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Consumer Staples (XLP).

Factors

Momentum paused as buyers moved over to revenue.

Overall, it was a wait-and-see session.

There is a question of leadership beyond Technology (XLK). The good news is that there are a fair number of inexpensive names lurking outside of Technology. Still, I want to be part of the artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem.

Gaining Confidence

Goldman Sachs (GS) upped its S&P 500 (SPX) target to 8,000 on the strength of earnings. That’s the “ace in the hole.”

Separating Software Survivors and Victims

Snowflake (SNOW) crushed it after the close.  Salesforce (CRM) not so much.

We’ll see how impactful this morning’s inflation read is – I think the market will look past a “hot” number.

Today’s Session

Lots of data out this morning – the good news is inflation climbed less than expected.

The bad news is folks are running out of money. The savings rate hit 2.6% as spending remains robust. I will say the wealth effect from the stock market is a reason folks are saving less.

Durable Goods orders came more than 2 times better than what Wall Street was anticipating. The bottom line is once oil pressures ebb, the underlying strength and momentum of the economy will become more apparent that it's there.

Stock Market

Lots of moving parts in the market this morning.

Watching software (IGV) as survivors are also deemed winners after being pummeled.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) is intriguing because financial gains were only “in line,” but Wall Street is listening to the story – a major change in the street's playbook.

Oppenheimer gave data center construction upgrades, including on three of our open positions (PWR, FIX, and STRL).

I love it when a plan comes together.

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