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Afternoon Note

Risk-Off Slide

By Karina Hernandez, Senior Research Analyst
1/20/2026 1:53 PM

Major indices are all moving lower today amid geopolitical tensions that could spur a trade war, after President Trump announced 10% tariff to European nations until leaders accept his view over Greenland. Earlier, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reaffirmed he doesn’t see anything changing in regard to the EU’s trade deal, though the market is little changed from the losses at the open.

Macron delivered remarks at Davos where he highlighted the need to respond to low European growth and the need for further Chinese investment in Europe. On the Greenland front, he proposed having a G7 meeting after Davos to discuss the issue and pushed for the EU to consider using its Anti-Coercion Instrument in the event of further escalation. The instrument is informally known as the “trade bazooka”, which could limit U.S. access to public tenders or restrict trade in services, such as technology platforms.

The Danish pension fund, AkademikerPension, announced its plans to divest U.S. treasuries. However, they only manage approximately $23B - $25B, while the treasury market trades around $600B per day, making it a drop in the bucket.

The S&P 500 (SPX) tests its 50-day moving average, while the Nasdaq moved beneath it.

The Russell 2000 is outpacing the S&P 500 today and marking its 12th consecutive days of outperformance. A 13th day would be tied with June 2008.

The magnificent seven are moving lower across the board. Nvidia (NVDA) is the worst performer in the group, after Chinese customs authorities indicated H200 chips were not permitted to enter China.

Despite Technology (XLK) being the laggard, memory storage names are trading higher after Micron (MU) executive stated that AI-driven memory shortage is expected to persist beyond 2026. Meanwhile, Energy (XLE) is the one sector edging into the green, driven by higher oil and natural gas prices. Natural gas prices are up over 7%, as forecasts now expect colder weather throughout the rest of the month.

The Supreme Court has once again declined to release its decision on Trump's tariffs.


 

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