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Afternoon Note

Fed on Deck

By Karina Hernandez, Senior Research Analyst
9/17/2025 1:33 PM

Fed Day is here with major indices mixed this afternoon. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are in the red, while the Russell 2000 and Dow Jones are moving higher.

Powell Fed Days have been on average the worst of any Fed Chair. Historically by the end of trading, the S&P has only averaged a 6 basis points (bps) gain during Powell’s, followed by a 16 basis points gain from Yellen and 26 basis points gain from Bernanke.

The market awaits a rate cut. Historically, when the Fed cuts rates near highs, the market tends to move higher. The 1-year return is in the green 100% of the time.

Mega caps are seeing some profit taking this afternoon. Nvidia (NVDA) is the worst performer, out of the magnificent seven, after China’s internet regulator told tech firms in their country to stop buying Nvidia’s chips and terminate current orders.

As a result, Technology (XLK) is the worst performing sector today. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) is also underperforming due to losses in its mega-cap components.

Advancers outpace decliners on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, denoting a healthier breadth despite mega-cap weakness.

Market Breadth

NYSE

NASDAQ

Advancers

1,827

2,588

Decliners

901

1,867

New Highs

119

217

New Lows

11

40

Up Volume

1.63 billion

3.11 billion

Down Volume

819.6 million

1.67 billion


 

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