It was an up session yesterday, with a better outcome than a week earlier, but the market is still on tenterhooks.

The Fear & Greed gauge has remained in extreme fear since February 25^th.

There was buying across the board, with mid-caps making the most significant moves.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is on the cusp of a short-term breakout that would be tradable if it happens on better than average volume.

Concerns

The ‘Generals’ keep fading after strong starts - that’s a yellow flag.

Earnings

Earnings revisions continue at a blistering pace. This could be good down the road as companies beat a lowered consensus.

Fear Campaign

Only the COVID-19 pandemic saw more news articles about economic uncertainty, which stokes economic uncertainty.

Have you seen the plunge in egg prices? After the inauguration, the continued run up was breathlessly reported. The good news is we will not see daylight in this environment.

Wall Street Believers

More firms are openly discussing market challenges, and some have lowered their growth and earnings estimates, although I haven’t seen any say the market is not a buy.

I think the UBS Group (UBS) is onto something about the Trump administration's lack of clarity. This might be the so-called ‘Trump Put.’

You will see more Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and less Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

You'll see more U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and less Senior Counselor of Trade Peter Navarro.

The message will become apparent and soothe nerves. I suspect this is also key to negotiations and will make deal making easier.

Significantly, few firms have adjusted their year-end S&P 500 targets.

Today’s Session

The market is looking flaccid now as some are pointing to demands form Russian President Putin, ahead of his call with President Trump today.

This should not have any bearing on fundamentals, although there is a peace dividend, particularly for Europe.

All the economic data out this morning came in better than expected.

• Housing Starts: 1.5 million annual rate; consensus 1.38 million
• Housing Permits: 1.46 million; consensus 1.45 million

• Industrial Production: +0.7; consensus +0.5
• Capacity Utilization: 78.2%; consensus 77.8%

The market needs sessions that begin soft and end in a buying flurry. The shorts have already begun to blink, this could be a very important session.

Comments

Charles, the reference to the prices of eggs in the media as being caused by administrative policy is definitely misleading. Every time others reporting on it in the national news is politically driven and never includes the real reason why... The Avian Bird flu and the result of having to destroy tens (or hundreds) of millions of producing chickens is treated completely separate with no direct connection back to that. Terry Dowler on 3/18/2025 9:51:20 AM

^ *choosing* to destroys millions of chickens https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPRrI-c6KsE Michael Supplee on 3/18/2025 11:36:54 AM

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