Morning Commentary
I’ve said it before, and I’ll repeat it: For all the hopes for broader market participation, when it's time to save the day or reboot the rally, it comes back to growth in general and Technology (XLK) in particular.
When those big boxes and rectangles are green, the S&P 500 is generally higher.
55 & Counting
There are now 55 new closing highs in the year as the S&P 500 is lifting off a great point that was once resistance and has been held as support.
Market Breadth
Yesterday, all the action was in the NASDAQ Composite and small-caps, which is interesting, considering all the calls on the Street for moves into large-cap quality. The NASDAQ leaped out of the gate and never looked back.
Market Breadth |
NYSE |
NASDAQ |
Advancers |
1,303 |
2,390 |
Decliners |
1,493 |
1,934 |
New Highs |
131 |
226 |
New Lows |
32 |
87 |
Up Volume |
1.36 billion |
3.13 billion |
Down Volume |
1.93 billion |
2.27 billion |
Small-Caps
Large-cap growth led the way, but there were more pockets in small-caps that moved higher, although the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has now gone 769 consecutive days since it last established an all-time high.
The Russell 2000 has followed the script. It's made an impressive move, but a breakout on strong volume is the ultimate buy signal.
The Fed Still Our Friend
Late in the session, Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated he was leaning toward a rate cut and that current policy is “still restrictive.”
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is in a dicey situation. Still, it looks as if they have chosen a path and need significant proof that inflation is turning higher and not just momentarily stalling.
Interestingly, everyone on the Street thinks the jobs report will come in higher than the consensus – of everyone on the Street (what a racket).
Waller’s comments moved the needle on the likelihood of a rate cut this month and lifted the likelihood in subsequent months.
Economic Data
Today begins an avalanche of economic data that should heavily influence day-to-day action in the market:
Today’s Session
Data on consumer shopping is coming in and the main theme is that folks are willing to spend if they feel they are getting bargains.
Amazon (AMZN)
"We know how much our customers appreciate saving money, and our customers saved billions with us during this year’s holiday shopping event,” said Doug Herrington, CEO, Worldwide Amazon Stores
Square (SQ)
“With over 1 in 3 shoppers more stressed about holiday shopping this year compared to last, customers all around the world turned out in droves for the mega discounting weekend to save on gifts, shopping both online and in-store and driving increased sales.”
Lots of data ahead this morning.
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7/3/2025 9:45 AM | NICE & STEADY AS SEMIS CONTINUE TO CHIP IN |
7/2/2025 1:44 PM | Materials' Strength Continues |
7/2/2025 9:38 AM | BARNBURNER |
7/1/2025 1:29 PM | Rotation |
7/1/2025 9:45 AM | FEAR OF MISSING OUT IS CREEPING IN |
6/30/2025 1:24 PM | Steady As She Goes |
6/30/2025 9:54 AM | SUMMER RALLY STARTS |
6/27/2025 1:35 PM | Reaching New Heights |
6/27/2025 9:39 AM | THERE'S MORE! |
6/26/2025 1:10 PM | S&P Approaches Record |
6/26/2025 9:51 AM | CHIPS MOMENTUM CONTINUES |
6/25/2025 1:42 PM | Tech Stocks Power Nasdaq 100 |
6/25/2025 9:47 AM | CLIMBING MOUNTAINS OF WORRY |
6/24/2025 1:47 PM | Peace Rally |
6/24/2025 9:48 AM | PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH: THE MARKET LOVES IT |
6/23/2025 1:47 PM | Getting Some Resolve |
6/23/2025 9:51 AM | BRACING |
6/20/2025 1:29 PM | Second Triple Witching |
6/20/2025 9:38 AM | POWELL BLEW IT |
6/18/2025 12:41 PM | FED Day |
6/18/2025 9:45 AM | ROOM WITH A VIEW |
6/17/2025 1:26 PM | Tension Continues |
6/17/2025 9:50 AM | THE BIG TECH TEN & CO |
6/16/2025 1:34 PM | Fears Subside |
6/16/2025 9:44 AM | DRUMBEATS OF PEACE |
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