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Question of the Week

Do you see a soft landing for the US economy?
Post your answer below.

Morning Commentary

Can A Soft Landing Be Achieved?

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
11/17/2023 9:44 AM

The market consolidating gains is a very healthy sign.  Enough intra-day volatility to shake out weaker hands, and yet, buyers continue to materialize, but are resisting the urge to panic buy.

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There have been three breakaway gap-openings (see arrow), and now the S&P must clear 4,600. 

Note: the RSI is hinting at short-term overbought.


The Bond Market

Bonds yields continue to come down, and now the ten-year looks to fill the gap (see arrow) around 4.30%.  The big test comes at 4.10%.


Disaster Correction

Historically, it has taken a cataclysmic event to turn rising bond yields lower.  Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that this time.


The experts are convinced there will be a soft or no landing for the economy.

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Fed Barr out this morning stating, we are likely at or near the peak of where we need to be on interest.

Portfolio Approach

There is no change to the sector weights in the Hotline Model Portfolio.

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Today’s Session

The market indicating higher at the start of trading today will be a test of conviction, as the urge to scalp some trades will be even more intense ahead for the weekend.

no. I think the wheels will come off this bus at some point...spiraling national debt must pressure interest rates to rise and then it's game over.

Jerry Hogan on 11/17/2023 10:00:06 AM
On the question of a soft landing, based on how they define GPD these days... I would expect it to be more likely than a recession. The Government approved spending around the infrastructure bill and IRA has a lot remaining to be feed into the economy. (At least from my understanding.) Then there is whatever comes out of the final 2024 fiscal budget year, which was due by 9/30/2023 and gets kicked down the road via CRs.
All in my humble opinion, but with 2024 being an election year. It's not so much about what the Fed-R will do... More about what the Treasury department leadership does to make things look better than they are.

Terry Dowler on 11/17/2023 10:24:25 AM
no, the other shoe will inevitably drop

Buster on 11/17/2023 11:06:35 AM
It certainly is a puzzle. On one hand the FED will keep the interest rates higher for longer. Demand destruction is their goal. HOWEVER this is an election year. The administration will pressure the FED to lower rates.

Mike T on 11/17/2023 11:57:06 AM
A lot depends on the Middle East. With Iran continuing to saber-rattle and the Biden admin waffling on full support for Israel, the intensity in the region could escalate. The holiday season approaches which historically has motivated the terrorist elements to strike. Add to the uncertainty the soft expectations on consumer spending and we could be facing a downturn in the economy with the market sliding back in favor of safer havens for investors.

MikEquity on 11/20/2023 5:32:50 PM
I don't think it will be a smooth landing. Our Washington crowd continues to spend money we do not have as well as take on additional financial responsibilities for wars and uncontrolled immigration responsibilities. Do they have a source of income we do not know about? Raising takes and adding IRS agents appears to be the plan.

Ashleigh on 11/24/2023 6:27:24 PM

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