Morning Commentary
Year-to-Date
Talk about “Green shoots.” Just about every stock in the S&P 500 finished higher on the session. For the year, big has been beautiful, and for all the complaining about the so-called “Magnificent Seven” when weighing the S&P names equally, there is zero gain on the year.
Yesterday was another vigorous session for the market, which is staging a fierce rally just as it appeared the bottom was falling out. All eleven sectors finished the session higher. Financials (XLF) enjoyed a strong session.
Regional banks surged 5.57% and climbed over the 200-day moving average.
There was a sharp spike in names trading above their 200-day moving average.
The S&P 500 enjoyed an intense session and is within striking distance of the 50-day moving average.
Bond Market
TLT moved higher, but this stealth three-year slump will not be resolved overnight.
Today’s Session
The jobs report was a huge miss, which is music to the Fed's ears. This is what they want and will get them to stop sabotaging the economy. However, it is difficult on main street. In October, 150,000 jobs were created, way below the estimates for 180,000 and below the monthly average year over year of 285,000. The UAW strike was a contributor, weighing on manufacturing jobs.
Additionally, September was revised lower to 297,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in October, up from 3.8% in September, and above expectations. The number of people unemployed rose 146,000 to 6,500,000.
October |
Actual |
Consensus |
Prior |
Revised |
Average Hourly Earnings M/M |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y |
4.1% |
4.0% |
4.2% |
4.3% |
Average Weekly Hours All Employees |
34.3 |
34.4 |
34.4 |
-- |
Labor Force Participation Rate |
62.7% |
62.8% |
62.8% |
-- |
The market is reacting to the jobs’ number positively, and all the major indices are higher. Yields are down with the 10-year nearing 4.5%, a steep drop from 4.83% earlier in the week.
Tweet |
7/3/2025 9:45 AM | NICE & STEADY AS SEMIS CONTINUE TO CHIP IN |
7/2/2025 1:44 PM | Materials' Strength Continues |
7/2/2025 9:38 AM | BARNBURNER |
7/1/2025 1:29 PM | Rotation |
7/1/2025 9:45 AM | FEAR OF MISSING OUT IS CREEPING IN |
6/30/2025 1:24 PM | Steady As She Goes |
6/30/2025 9:54 AM | SUMMER RALLY STARTS |
6/27/2025 1:35 PM | Reaching New Heights |
6/27/2025 9:39 AM | THERE'S MORE! |
6/26/2025 1:10 PM | S&P Approaches Record |
6/26/2025 9:51 AM | CHIPS MOMENTUM CONTINUES |
6/25/2025 1:42 PM | Tech Stocks Power Nasdaq 100 |
6/25/2025 9:47 AM | CLIMBING MOUNTAINS OF WORRY |
6/24/2025 1:47 PM | Peace Rally |
6/24/2025 9:48 AM | PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH: THE MARKET LOVES IT |
6/23/2025 1:47 PM | Getting Some Resolve |
6/23/2025 9:51 AM | BRACING |
6/20/2025 1:29 PM | Second Triple Witching |
6/20/2025 9:38 AM | POWELL BLEW IT |
6/18/2025 12:41 PM | FED Day |
6/18/2025 9:45 AM | ROOM WITH A VIEW |
6/17/2025 1:26 PM | Tension Continues |
6/17/2025 9:50 AM | THE BIG TECH TEN & CO |
6/16/2025 1:34 PM | Fears Subside |
6/16/2025 9:44 AM | DRUMBEATS OF PEACE |
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