Wall Street Strategies
Hello! Sign in or Register


Morning Commentary

HOLDING THE LINE †

By Charles Payne, CEO & Principal Analyst
10/6/2023 9:52 AM

The market exhibited enough spunk yesterday to hold above key technical levels. The Heat Map shows major hits in Consumer Staples (XLP).

Image

S&P 500 Map

Heat Map

It was a very interesting session for Consumer Staples, which is now being talked down as Americans turn to miracle pills.

I do not buy the hype. However, there is less demand for food as households scrimp and save to get through food insecurity.

A screenshot of a graphDescription automatically generated

Commodity Dive

U.S. Commodities are taking it on the chin, especially copper. The experts keep saying, ‘No recession.’ It's hard not to believe the economy is slowing more rapidly. The action in precious metals is also disconnected from the Wall Street and Federal Reserve narrative.

A screenshot of a computerDescription automatically generated

Market Breadth

The market breadth was evenly divided, and volume was extremely light.

But only four names on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and nine on the NASDAQ Composite closed at a new high. Astonishing.

Market Breadth

NYSE

NASDAQ

Advancers

1,274

2,032

Decliners

1,561

2,074

New Highs

4

9

New Lows

67

95

Up Volume

1.76 billion

1.79 billion

Down Volume

1.74 billion

2.33 billion

The NASDAQ 100 Cracks in Armor

This was the juggernaut of 2023, but now it is harder to resist the unyielding spike in the 10-year bond yield.

Image

It’s all about the jobs report this morning…buckle up.

Portfolio Approach

There is no change to the sector weights in the Hotline Model Portfolio.

Today’s Session

The jobs report is out, and it is not a “strong” report as will be widely expressed in the media.  The headline number came in better than expected, but here’s the reality.

Headlines move algorithms and their moves trigger actions in human beings.  Here’s the initial reaction.

A graph showing the stock market indexDescription automatically generated

The headline number should be 263,000 since 73,000 were government.

Sadly, we must look at the jobs report through the lens of the Federal Reserve.  With that in mind, there are three pluses (I hesitate to use the word positives):

Powell & Co will not be happy that only 90,000 came back to the labor force.

Bond yields spike with the ten-year hitting 4.887%. 

A graph showing a lineDescription automatically generated

On balance, I think the Fed got a lot of what it wanted. So did the stock market in the sense people are consuming because they have jobs, even folks that are leaning heavy on credit cards, and that bodes well for earnings.

Let’s see if we retest the pre-open lows.  That is the set up for today’s session.


Comments
Only with my uncanny ability to observes the obvious Charles, the money comes from us.

Don Lauro on 10/6/2023 2:29:49 PM
 

Log In To Add Your Comment


Home | Products & Services | Education | In The Media | Help | About Us |
Disclaimer | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use |
All Rights Reserved.

 

×