Yesterday, the market was in rally mode after economic releases added to the Goldilocks conversation.  Right now, that destination or distinction is up for debate.

A soft landing is incredibly difficult.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed saw a big decline in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasting model.  After peaking on August 24^th at 5.9%, the Fed GDPNow estimate is 4.9%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is rapidly approaching, and I would like to see this decline even more. This will keep the Fed at bay.

Green on the Screen

All eleven sectors were higher, but Defensive stocks enjoyed the largest gain as cyclical stocks saw the smallest.

Breadth

Market breadth was okay, but nothing to write home about, but we will take it.

Market Breadth	NYSE	NASDAQ
Advancers	2,290	2,880
Decliners	629	1,400
New Highs	64	49
New Lows	63	185
Up Volume	2.90 billion	2.85 billion
Down Volume	712.16 million	1.72 billion

Small-Caps put in a solid session.

And broker-dealers looked compelling, bouncing off the 50-and 200-day moving averages.

Portfolio Approach

There are no sector weighting changes in the Hotline Model Portfolio.

Session (glimpses of higher prices)

Import prices rose for the second consecutive month rose +0.5% against consensus of +0.3%.

In the Philly Fed Manufacturing report, prices paid edged higher, but the prices received surged.

Meanwhile, the stock market is pulling back ahead of the open and bond yields are edging higher.

Not liking this action at all.

Comments

Not likely to be a "Soft Landing" when we continue to have 5+ million immigrants entering the country that need Federal Assistance. Interest rates will get to 6+% and service to our Debt will bring a hard recession. P Krueger on 9/15/2023 1:35:09 PM

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